000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Apr 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 10N84W to 08N98W to 07N106W to 04N116W. The ITCZ axis extends from 04N116W to 03N125W to 04N133W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 84W and 90W. Scattered strong convection is within 240 nm north of the axis between 97W and 101W, within 120 nm north of the axis between 101W and 105W, and within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the axis between 112W and 118W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm of the axis between 105W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the axis between 123W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest Ascat data and a few ship observations indicate gentle to moderate winds northerly winds off the coast of Baja California Norte with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, 5 to 7 ft off the remainder of the coast of Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of California while gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the remainder of the forecast waters through Thursday. In the long term, northerly winds will begin to increase over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning late on Thursday night, leading to the start of the next expected gale force gap wind event expected to begin early on Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active convection in the form numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the region generally south of 10N, including over the coastal and inland sections of much of Central America and Colombia through early this week. This persistent activity may lead to localized flooding over some areas of these locations. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected through early next week. Long period southwest swell producing seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will persist over these offshore waters through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Nearly stationary high pressure of 1034 mb centered north of the area near 36N135W extends a ridge southeastward to near 27N127W to near 21N118W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ. A decaying area of combined seas in the 6 to 8 ft range due to mixed northwest and southwest remains to the north of 25N between 124W and 131W. Elsewhere seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas will subside to below 8 ft over the northern portion on Wednesday. Cross- equatorial southwest swell is inducing combined seas of 6 to 8 ft over the far southern waters south of 02N between 108W and 120W. This swell will be replaced by another batch of southwest swell on Monday that will reach north to 09N between 96W and 120W. This area of swell will slowly decay through Tuesday while shifting eastward. $$ Aguirre