000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221521
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The northern part of a near-equatorial double ITCZ extends from 
05N91W to 06N113W to 03N122W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is evident near the ITCZ axis, from 
03N to 07N between 111W and 134W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening ridge axis extends from NW to SE across the offshore 
waters west of 115W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh 
northwesterly winds north of 23N. Seas currently 7 to 9 ft will 
subside to 5-7 ft by early Sunday. Large NW swell will reach 
120W Sunday and spread southward across the waters north of 25N 
through late Monday, then subside Tuesday and Wednesday. A 
tightening pressure gradient will produce strong NW winds in 
waters north of 29N east of 121W on Tuesday.

Gulf of California: Gentle NW flow is expected for most of the 
gulf through the weekend, except for variable winds setting up 
around a surface low north of 30N tonight and Sunday. Fresh to 
strong nocturnal sw winds are expected near 30N114W on Sunday, 
Monday and Tuesday nights.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly winds are expected to rapidly 
increase to 30 kt Sunday night, then quickly diminish Monday 
morning. Seas will build to 10-11 ft downstream of the gulf near 
14N95W around sunrise Monday. The pressure gradient will quickly 
relax Monday with winds becoming light and variable Tuesday.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds mostly onshore flow expected during the 
day becoming offshore along the coasts at night. Combined seas 
of 3 to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell forecast during the next 
several days.
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A cold front extending from 30N130W to 25N140W will stall this 
evening and dissipate overnight. Large NW swell associated with 
the front will build seas of 9 to 12 ft behind the front today. 
Expect swell to propagate eastward reaching from the northern 
Baja Peninsula to 07N140W by late Sunday,  then subside early 
next week.
 
$$
Mundell