000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180225
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Apr 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends sw from 08N83W to 05N93W to 05N99W 
where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms and 
continues nw to 08N110W, then turns sw through 04N125W to beyond 
04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
within 180 nm either side of a line from 08N82W to 04N93W, and 
within 270 nm either side of a line from 06N105W to 09N114W to 
05N131W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from nw to se across the offshore waters 
to the w of 107W. Fresh anticyclonic winds observed along the 
Pacific coast of Baja are expected to increase to a strong 
breeze across the EPAC waters from 29.5N to 32N late tonight, 
with these conditions spreading s and expanding w across the 
EPAC waters to the n of 24.5N e of 117W on Wed, and to the n of 
23N on Thu with seas building to 9 ft. The pressure gradient 
will relax on Thu night, with a moderate to fresh nw breeze 
forecast on Fri morning, and only a gentle nw flow on Sat 
morning with associated seas subsiding to 5 to 7 ft by Sat 
night. 
     
Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate nw flow forecast 
through Tue, then increasing to a moderate to fresh nw breeze on 
Tue night through Sat, with strong nw flow expected over the 
waters n of 30N briefly on Fri afternoon.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly drainage flow expected late 
Tue night and Wed morning, and again late Wed night into Thu 
morning. The next significant event is expected to begin on Sun 
night. 
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate nocturnal drainage winds expected 
tonight and on Tue night.
  
Gulf of Panama: Light nocturnal northerly flow expected this 
week.

Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft in mixing 
sw and nw swell are occurring elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A surface high will meander near 26N125W through Tue night 
before shifting n of 32N. The high is blocking the eastern 
advance of a series of cold fronts that will stall and dissipate 
across the nw waters, but their associated nw swell, in the form 
of 8 to 12 ft seas, will propagate se across the waters w of a 
line from 32N129W to 22N140w on Tue night. Expect seas of 8 to 
10 ft w of a line from the central Baja Penisula to 06N140w late 
Wed night. By then another batch of nw swell will arrive at 
32N140W, all ahead of a strong cold front preceded by a strong 
to near gale force s-sw flow across the discussion waters from 
28N to 32N on Thu night and Fri.  

$$
Nelson