000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Apr 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends sw of the Pacific coast of Colombia 
from 05N77W to 03S90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed in clusters within 75 nm of 05N78W and 
03S88W.

A surface trough extends sw from 09N82W to 05N95W to 05N99W 
where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms and 
continues nw to 08N111W, then turns sw through 04N124W to beyond 
05N140W. Scattered strong convection is observed over western 
Panama and along the surface within 120 nm either side of a line 
from 08N81W to 05N88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted within 240 nm either side of a line from 
09N104W to 05N125W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from nw to se across the offshore waters 
to the w of 107W. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds 
observed along the Pacific coast of Baja are expected to 
increase to a strong breeze across the adjacent waters from 
29.5N to 32N tonight, with these conditions spreading s and w 
across the waters n of 24.5N e of 117W on Wed, and to the n of 
23N on Thu with seas building to 9 ft. The pressure gradient 
will relax on Thu night with a moderate to fresh nw breeze 
forecast on Fri morning, and gentle nw flow on Sat with 
associated seas subsiding to 5 to 7 ft Sat night. 
     
Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate nw flow forecast 
through Tue, then increasing to a moderate to fresh nw breeze on 
Tue night through Sat, with strong nw flow expected over the 
waters n of 30N on Fri afternoon.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly drainage flow expected late 
Tue night and Wed morning, and again late Wed night into Thu 
morning. The next significant event is setting up for Sun night. 
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate drainage winds expected tonight and 
on Tue night.
  
Gulf of Panama: Light nocturnal northerly flow expected this 
week.

Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are 
occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the 
gap events. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A surface high will meander near 26N125W through Tue night 
before shifting n of 32N. The high is blocking the eastern 
progress of a series of cold fronts across the nw portion, but 
the associated nw swell in the form of 8 to 12 ft seas, will 
propagate se across the waters w of a line from 32N129W to 
22N140w on Tue night. Expect seas of 8 to 10 ft w of a line from 
the central Baja Penisula to 06N140w late Wed night. By then 
another batch of nw swell will arrive at 32N140W, all ahead of 
the strongest cold front preceded by a strong to near gale force 
s-sw flow across the discussion waters from 28N to 32N on Thu 
night and Fri.  

$$
Nelson