000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170950 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 615 UTC Mon Apr 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N79W to 07N85W to 05N94W to 05N98W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 06N between 90W and 98W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N98W to 08N111W to 03N123W to 05N133W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 03N to 06N between 98W and 103W and also within an area bounded by 08N106W to 02N110W to 04N120W to 11N111W to 08N106W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula has slackened as a stalling frontal boundary continues to weaken the ridge to the west of this region. The ridge will remain nearly stationary through tonight before it begins to shift east northeast through Tuesday. The resulting tightening gradient between the high and toughing along the Baja California Peninsula will bring fresh to strong NW winds to the waters north of Punta Eugenia on Monday while fresh NW to N winds continue south of Punta Eugenia. The strong winds will spread southward over the offshore waters for the northern and central sections of the Baja California Peninsula until Friday, then diminish on Friday evening. Seas of 5 to 7 ft for waters adjacent to the Baja California Peninsula will subside slightly today, then build again to 6 to 8 ft by late Tuesday as NW winds strengthen. Seas will peak between 8 and 11 ft by Friday morning as a reinforcing round of NW swell arrive, then slowly subside to between 5 and 7 feet on Sunday morning. The high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is shifting eastward and weakening. As a result, winds over the Gulf of tehuantepec have diminished to light to gentle speeds. Winds may pulse to fresh to strong speeds Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico strengthens and augments nocturnal drainage flow. Light and variable winds and seas generally below 2 ft will prevail across all but southernmost portions of the Gulf of California through Tuesday as the pressure gradient remains rather loose along the Baja California Peninsula. Seas of about 3 to 4 ft are expected near the entrance of the Gulf through Wednesday. Moderate NW winds are expected to develop by Thursday in response to building high pressure over the Pacific to the WNW. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Papagayo through Wednesday. Seas will slowly subside from 5 to 7 feet to between 4 and 6 ft by Wednesday. Light and variable winds and 3 to 5 ft seas will prevail over the Gulf of Panama through Friday night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail through early next week as broad low pressure develops across the eastern portion of the area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... ...A very progressive winter type pattern persists over the northwest corner of the area... A 1021 mb high center analyzed near 24N127W ridges SW to near 21N140W and also SE to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generating moderate to fresh NE winds roughly from 05N to 20N west of 112W. Associated seas in this area run between 7 and 10 ft as NW swell and NE wind waves mix. The high pressure will continue to weaken in response to fronts arriving over the NW corner of the discussion area. As a result, the trades over the central and western portions of the forecast area will weaken through tonight. Wave model guidance indicates that seas within this area of trades will subside below 8 ft by this evening. High pressure building in behind the fronts will cause fresh to strong NW winds to develop N of 23.5N and east of 120W Wednesday through Friday. Seas will peak at 8 to 11 ft and will cover a large area by Friday morning. Seas will begin to subside on Friday but seas of 8 ft or more will encompass most of the discussion area N of a line from 17N108W to 09N113W to 04N124W to 04N140W by Saturday afternoon. $$ cam