000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1510 UTC Sun Apr 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...Special Features... None. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The northern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 05N88W to 02.5N120W to 05N133W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is observed extending NE from the ITCZ from 02.5N to 08.5N between 81.5W and 88W...within 120nm N and 75 nm S of ITCZ between 88W and 100W...and within 180 nm N and 75 nm S of ITCZ between 111W and 140W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03.4S95W to 01.5S112W to 02S118W to beyond 03S120W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 240 nm S of this southern ITCZ between 90W to beyond 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula has slackened as a cold front continues to weaken the ridge to the W. NNW to N winds across the waters west of Baja California will generally remain moderate today and then freshen late this afternoon and evening due to daytime heating, before the ridge shifts slightly E tonight through Tue and tighten the pressure gradient all along the coast. Fresh NWly winds N of Punta Eugenia on Monday will spread S to the entire peninsula through Tue, with winds N of Punta Eugenia becoming strong. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevailed across the near shore coastal waters of Baja California Norte this morning and will subside to 4 to 6 ft this afternoon before increasing again to 6 to 8 ft through late Tuesday as winds strengthen. Seas will build to between 8 and 10 ft by Thursday morning as a new pulse of NW swell arrives. Seas across the waters of Baja California Sur were also 5-7 ft near shore this morning and 7-8 ft outside of 75 nm and will subside slightly this afternoon through Mon before increasing to 5-7 ft through late Tue. The pressure gradient between a strong high pressure over ridge dominating the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressures south of the Tehuantepec region has induced a modest plume of north winds 20- 25 kt this morning across and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 14.5N, where seas are 5-7 ft. The high pressure will shift eastward as low pressure develops over the southern plains today, allowing the pressure gradient to relax this afternoon. Fresh north winds this evening will generally become light and variable tonight through Tuesday. Seas will gradually subside to 4 to 5 ft by Tuesday. Light and variable winds and seas generally below 2 ft will prevail across all but southern portions of the Gulf of California today through Monday night as the pressure gradient remains loose along the Baja California Peninsula. Seas of about 3 to 4 ft are expected near the entrance of the Gulf through Monday. Moderate NW winds are expected to develop by Thursday in response to building high pressure over the Pacific to the WNW. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Across the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to locally strong nocturnal northeast to east drainage flow extends out to 88.5W and will diminish today and become moderate to fresh by tonight. Seas have peaked at around 8 ft this morning, and will decrease to 4 to 5 ft by Tuesday. Across the Gulf of Panama, fresh northerly flow extends will S of the Gulf to near 04N where peak seas have built to 6 ft. winds will diminish to gentle to moderate tonight through Tuesday, while seas subside to 3-4 feet by Tuesday. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1019 mb high pressure center is located near 25N127W and extends ridges SW to beyond 21N140W and also southeastward to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generating moderate to fresh NE winds roughly from 05N to 19N west of 112W. Associated seas in this area run between 7 and 10 ft as NW swell and NE wind waves mix. The high pressure will continue to weaken as a cold front currently entering the NW corner of the discussion area moves east. As a result, the trades over the central and western portions of the forecast area will weaken through Monday night. Wave model guidance indicates that seas within this area of trades will subside below 8 ft by Tue morning. High pressure building in behind the new cold front will cause fresh to strong NW winds to develop N of 24N and E of 120W on Wednesday and Thursday. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will cover a large area to the north of a line from 22N112W to 15N120W to 11N131W to 11N140W by Friday morning. $$ Stripling