000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 UTC Sun Apr 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...Special Features... None. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The northern Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N89W to 02N106W to 03N115W to 03N120W to 04N133W to 03N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 60 nm either side of a line from 04N125W to 06N135W to 03N137W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 06N between 89W and 98W and from 01N to 04N between 111W and 116W. The southern Intertropical Convergence Zone axis reaches from 06SN92W to 03S98W to 01S113W to beyond 03S120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 02S to 03.4s between 102W and 105W and from 02S to 03.4s between 110W and 116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico and lower pressures south of the Tehuantepec region will once again encourage north winds to pulse back up to 20-25 kt this morning as nocturnal drainage augments the wind flow. The high pressure will shift eastward as low pressure develops over the southern plains today, allowing the pressure gradient to relax this afternoon. Fresh north winds this evening will generally become light and variable tonight through Tuesday. Seas of 5 to 7 ft today will subside to 4 to 5 ft by Tuesday. The pressure gradient along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula has slackened as a cold front continues to weaken the ridge to the NW. Winds west of Baja will generally remain moderate range with brief episodes of fresh winds possible through Monday. Seas of 6 to 7 ft west of Baja California Norte will subside to 5 to 7 ft by Tuesday. The pressure gradient will increase once again as high pressure builds in behind a cold front that will dissipate to the west of the Baja California Peninsula on Tuesday. The increased gradient will generate fresh to strong NW winds along the extreme northern section of the Baja California Norte Peninsula late Monday night. The areal coverage of the fresh to strong NW winds will increase and spread southward to 24N by Thursday morning. Seas will build to between 8 and 10 ft by Thursday morning. Light and variable winds and seas generally below 2 ft will prevail across most of the Gulf of California through Monday night as the pressure gradient remains loose along the Baja California Peninsula. Seas of about 3 to 4 ft are expected near the entrance of the Gulf through Monday. Moderate NW winds are expected to develop by Thursday in response to building high pressure over the Pacific to the WNW. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to locally strong nocturnal northeast to east drainage flow will become moderate to fresh by tonight. Seas will peak at around 8 ft this morning, then decrease to 4 to 5 ft on Tuesday. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly flow will diminish to gentle to moderate winds tonight through Tuesday. Seas of 5 to 6 ft downstream from the Gulf this morning will subside to between 3 and 4 feet by Tuesday. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high pressure cell centered near 27N127W ridges SW to beyond 21N140W and also southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generating moderate to fresh NE winds roughly from 04N to 20N west of 115W. Associated seas in this area run between 7 and 9 ft as NW swell and NE wind waves mix. The high pressure will continue to weaken as a cold front currently entering the NW corner of the discussion area moves east. As a result, the trades over the central and western portions of the forecast area will weaken through Monday night. Wave model guidance indicates that seas within this area of trades will subside below 8 ft tonight. High pressure building in behind the cold front will cause fresh to strong NW winds to develop N of 24N and E of 120W on Wednesday and Thursday. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will cover a large area to the north of a line from 22N112W to 15N120W to 11N131W to 11N140W by Friday morning. $$ cam