000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140850
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0845 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
The northern Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 02N94W 
to 03N120W to 04N130W to 04N140W. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is from 02N to 05N W of 134W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ axis W of 
112W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern 
Mexico and lower pressures south of the Tehuantepec region will 
support fresh to strong northerly winds across the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec today through Saturday afternoon.

A surface ridge extends into the offshore waters while surface 
low pressure continues along the Gulf of California and NW 
Mexico. A tightened pressure gradient between these two features 
continue to support northwest fresh to strong winds offshore of 
Baja California Norte where seas are up to 8 ft. The surface 
trough is forecast to dissipate by Friday in the afternoon, 
which will allow for the pressure gradient to relax and winds to 
diminish. Northwest swell, however, will continue to support 
seas up to 9 ft off the Baja California Norte through Saturday 
night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to locally strong drainage flow 
is expected to pulse at night Friday and Saturday. Seas are 
expected to build to 8 ft with these winds. 

In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh northerly flow is 
expected during the overnight hours through the upcoming 
weekend. Seas will be in the range of 5 to 6 ft downstream of 
the Gulf.
  
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft 
will change little through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A large set of northwest swell producing seas of 8 to 11 ft is 
in the northwest and north-central portion of the basin, which 
will continue to spread east towards the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte this afternoon.

The next cold front is forecast to enter northwest waters 
Saturday afternoon, however south to southwest fresh to strong 
winds ahead of the front will enter the region during the 
morning hours. A new set of northwest swell associated with this 
front will build seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft in the far 
northwest area Saturday. Seas will subside Sunday morning as the 
swell energy decays.

Surface ridging dominates elsewhere being anchored by a 1028 mb 
high pressure center analyzed north of the area. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures found to the 
southwest of the ridge is allowing for generally fresh to strong 
northeast winds from 07N to 11N between 132W and 139W with seas 
up to 11 ft as indicated by latest altimeter data. Another area 
of high pressure will build across the area during Friday, but 
will be shunted to the east with the approach of deep layer 
troughing from the west and the associated aforementioned cold 
front. This process will bring a further weakening to the trades 
Saturday and Saturday night, with model guidance showing mostly 
gentle to moderate trades over the western and central waters 
from about 05N to 20N. Seas will range between 8 and 9 ft under 
these conditions.
  
$$

NR