000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100221
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Apr 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0215 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A surface trough extends from 09N84W TO 04N100W. Scatterometer 
winds indicate that the ITCZ forms at 03N106W and extends nw to 
04N118W, turns turns sw to 02N130W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of a 
line from 08N83W to 03N96W. 

A surface trough is analyzed n of the ITCZ from 05N117W to 
11N114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed to the s of 09N within 300 nm either side of the trough.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A post-frontal ridge extends across the offshore waters to the w 
of 108W. Fresh to locally strong anticyclonic winds are observed 
along the Pacific coast of Baja, with long period nw swell 
contributing to combined seas of 7 to 11 ft. The pressure 
gradient will begin to relax late tonight, with moderate to 
locally fresh nw flow, and 5 to 8 ft seas, expected from early 
Mon through Tue night when the gradient will begin to tighten 
again. Fresh to locally strong nw flow forecast to the n of 27N 
e of 117W on Wed.

Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh nw flow across the 
northern gulf waters early tonight will diminish with a moderate 
nw breeze forecast throughout the gulf waters on Mon, and a 
light to gentle nw to n breeze forecast on Tue and Wed.
  
Gulf of Tehuantepec...Light and variable flow expected through 
early Tue night, with a strong northerly surge forecast to begin 
late Tue night, and continue through sunrise Thu, with near gale 
force conditions possible on Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal drainage 
winds expected this week.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh nocturnal northerly flow 
expected during the overnight hours this week.
  
Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are 
occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the 
gap events. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Long-period northwesterly swell, resulting in combined seas of 7 
to 10 ft across the area n of 05N w of 115W, are expected to 
subside early this week. A surface high currently meandering 
near 31N130W will shift slowly southward this week allowing a 
cold front to reach a position from 32N138W to 29N140W on Mon 
night. The front will be accompanied by a strong sw-w-nw wind 
shift through Tue morning, mainly across the discussion waters 
from 29.5N to 32N. Large nw swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft 
seas, will propagate into the far nw portion tonight ahead of 
the cold front, with seas building 8 to 12 ft w of the front, 
with the highest seas along 32N. The front will weaken from 
32N127W to 26N140W on Wed with seas of 8 to 10 ft shifting to n 
of 31N. Another batch of large nw swell will arrive at 30N140W 
late Wed behind a re-enforcing cold front.   

$$
Nelson