000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0215 UTC Sun Apr 09 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N83W TO 03N97W TO 04N109W where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms, and continues wsw to 04N123W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 06N84W to 00N91W,and within 120 nm either side of a line from 02N106W to 10N119W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front will sweep e across the waters n of 30N tonight as a surface ridge bridges se through the frontal remnants and across the offshore waters w of the Baja Peninsula. The tightening pressure gradient will support a fresh nw breeze across the EPAC waters n of 28N e of 120W, except fresh to strong flow is forecast within about 90 nm of the Baja coast. These fresh to strong conditions are forecast to spread se across all waters w of the Baja by Sun evening, with seas building to 6 to 9 ft. The pressure gradient will begin to relax on Sun night, with moderate to locally fresh nw flow expected through at least the middle of next week as seas gradually subside to less than 8 ft on Wed night. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate nw flow expected s of 29N through early Sun. Moderate to locally fresh nw flow forecast across the gulf waters n of 29N tonight behind the cold front, will spread se across the central gulf waters Sun afternoon. Expect moderate nw flow throughout the gulf waters on Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Fresh northerly flow expected briefly tonight. The next strong northerly surge is forecast to begin on Tue night, and continue through the end of next week, with near gale force conditions possible on Wed night. Smoke from agricuture fires over interior Mexico is observed on high resolution satellite imagery across the offshore waters s of 15N, but does not appear to be a dense as yesterday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal drainage winds expected tonight, and then developing again on Mon night, with a more significant gap event possible on Tue night. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh nocturnal northerly flow expected during the overnight hours through the middle of next week. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is rapidly weakening from near 32N118W to 25N130W with fresh anticyclonic winds setting up around a post-frontal ridge building se from 32N134W to 14N107W. Northwesterly swell results in combined seas of 6 to 9 ft across the area w of 105W. Another batch of nw swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will propagate into the far nw portion on Sun night ahead of a cold front reaching from 32N138W to 29N140W late Mon night accompanied by a strong sw-w-nw wind shift through early Tue, but only across the discussion waters from 30N to 32N. $$ Nelson