000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041522
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends westward from the border between Panama 
and Colombia to 04N98W, where the ITCZ continues to 01N110W to 
04N121W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident 
from 02N to 06N between 81W and 97W. Numerous moderate isolated 
strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 129W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure building into southern Mexico behind a strong cold 
front moving across the Gulf of Mexico is expected to induce a 
rapid increase in gap winds through the isthmus of Tehuantepec 
Thursday morning, with gale force winds likely in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Thursday through early Saturday. Wave model guidance 
indicates near shore seas will build to 14-15 ft Thursday night.

Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge extending from 32N130W to near 
the Revillagigedo Islands will weaken through Friday as a series 
of moderate cold fronts north of the area sweep eastward into 
California. Moderate northwesterly winds and subsiding seas are 
expected west of Baja California the next few days. Moderate NW 
winds will prevail in the central Gulf of California Wednesday 
and Thursday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh nocturnal gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo 
the next few days, becoming fresh to strong by Friday as high 
pressure builds north of the area over the Gulf of Mexico. Light 
to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas will prevail elsewhere over the 
forecast waters through Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area 
and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh trades over the trade wind belt. Altimeter 
data indicates seas are generally 7-9 ft west of 110W, and wave 
model guidance indicates seas will slowly subside the next two 
days over most of this area. NW swell from a dissipating cold 
front will move into the NW part of the forecast area Wednesday 
and spread east-southeastward Thursday. NE swell generated by 
gale force winds in Tehuantepec will spread to near 100W Friday. 
Another set of NW swell will propagate into the northwest waters 
early Friday, and peak near 15 ft late Friday night. 

$$
Mundell