000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040901
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
505 UTC Tue Apr 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ extends from 04N94W to 01N110W to 04N121W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 
30 nm either side of the ITCZ between 96W and 99W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm north 
of the ITCZ between 128W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb centered northwest of the region near
33N130W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Overnight ASCAT pass depicts gentle to moderate winds 
prevail off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula as 
well as southwest Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over 
the far northern extent of the Gulf of California with light to 
gentle winds prevailing over the remainder of the Gulf of 
California as well as the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas are in
the 8 to 10 ft range off the west coast of the Baja California 
peninsula in northwest swell, 3-4 ft over the far northern Gulf 
of California, 2 ft or less over the remainder of the Gulf of 
California, and 4-7 ft over the remainder of the forecast waters.

The northwesterly swell off the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula will subside today, and fall below 8 ft late tonight. A
fresh set of northwesterly swell will propagate into the area
early this weekend with seas building to near 9 ft off the west
coast of Baja California Norte Saturday. with seas building to 8
ft or greater off the west coast of Baja California Sur Sunday. 

A cold front will cross the Gulf of Mexico midweek. High 
pressure building behind the cold front is expected produce 
strong to near gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
and the surrounding waters during the day Thursday. Winds are
expected to increase to gale force Thursday night into Friday. 
High pressure north of the area will shift eastward Friday which 
will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish the resultant 
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are expected to
diminish below gale force Friday afternoon and further diminish
to 20 kt or less on Saturday night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gap winds will pulse to moderate the next couple of nights over 
the Gulf of Papagayo. High pressure building in the wake of a 
cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will increase winds funneling
into the Gulf of Papagayo Thursday night and Friday night. 
Otherwise...light to gentle winds and seas mainly between 4 to 7 
ft will prevail over the forecast waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of 
the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh trades over the tradewind belt. Seas
over this area are in the 8 to 11 ft range in a mix of 
northwesterly swell with shorter period northeast wind waves. 
Seas associated to the latest northwesterly swell train will 
slowly subside the next couple of days, subsiding below 8 ft by 
Wednesday night. A fresh set of northwesterly swell will reach 
the northwest waters Wednesday morning. Seas associated to this 
swell will peak near 11 ft Wednesday. Yet another set of 
northwesterly swell will propagate into the northwest waters late
Thursday. This swell will peak near 15 ft late Friday night. 

$$
AL