000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222129
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2130 UTC Wed Mar 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A surface trough axis extends from 09N112W to low pressure near 
05N114W to 04N124W. The intertropical convergence zone axis
extends from 04N124W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is within 480 nm in the northwest quadrant of
the low.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient combined with
nocturnal drainage flow will continue to support pulses of fresh
to strong northerly winds through Friday morning, then mainly
moderate thereafter. Seas will build to 8-11 ft with each pulse.

Elsewhere, a weakening cold front moving across Baja California
Norte will continue east and south across the Gulf of California
and the remainder of the peninsula through Thursday. High 
pressure building behind the front will support fresh to strong 
west flow over the northern Gulf of California tonight, and 
northwest winds off the coast Baja California and the central and
southern Gulf of California through Friday. Northwest swell of
8-9 ft will follow the front as well off the coast of Baja 
California, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by early Thursday.
Winds will diminish across the area as the gradient loosens 
through Saturday, along with swell decaying below 8 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure will prevail over the northwest Caribbean and Gulf 
of Mexico, which will allow for the continuation of fresh to 
strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through Friday
afternoon with seas to 8 ft. Winds will then pulse to fresh
thereafter.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are
expected to continue the next several days, except in the Gulf of
Panama where they will pulse to fresh through the end of this
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extending into the offshore waters area from near 
the Baja California Norte to 25N125W to 20N140W will continue 
east through late Thursday. Seas in the 8-10 ft range behind 
this front will propagate southeast while decaying through the 
next 24-48 hours. Another cold front is forecast to reach the 
northwest forecast waters Friday morning, followed by a new round
of northwest swell. A third cold front may arrive by Sunday 
evening.

Farther south, combined seas in the 8-10 ft range cover the 
waters along and north of the ITCZ. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong thunderstorms are ongoing northwest of a 1010 mb
low near 05N114W due to confluent flow in the lower levels, and
enhancement aloft from an upper level trough.

$$
LEWITSKY