000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221404
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1530 UTC Wed Mar 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 04N115W to 
05N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is 
from 05N to 10N between 113W and 119W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient has been tight
enough to support strong to near gale force gap wind pulses this
morning with the help of overnight drainage flow. An overnight
altimeter pass indicated seas to 9 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
These winds are diminishing this morning, but another pulse of 
strong to near gale force gap winds is likely tonight. The 
gradient loosens Thursday, with a relatively small and brief 
pulse of 20 to 25 kt winds Thursday night into Friday morning. 
Looking ahead, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through 
Sunday.

Elsewhere, a cold front approaching Guadalupe Island currently
will move into Baja California Norte later this morning, the
northern Gulf of California later today, and through Baja
California Sur and the central and southern Gulf of California
through Thursday. High pressure building behind the front will
support fresh to strong west flow over the northern Gulf of
California tonight, and northwest winds off the coast Baja 
California and the central and southern Gulf of California
through Thursday. Northwest swell of 8 to 9 ft will follow the
front as well off the coast of Baja California, reaching the
Revillagigedo Islands by early Thursday. Winds diminish across
the area as the gradient loosens through Saturday, along with
swell decaying below 8 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure will prevail over the northwest Caribbean and Gulf 
of Mexico, which will allow for the continuation of fresh to 
strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Friday 
with seas to 8 ft, and a brief pulse Saturday night. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to
continue the next several days elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extending from near the northern coast of Baja
California Norte to 21N135W continue east of the area through
late Thursday. Seas in the 8-10 ft range behind this front will
propagate southeast while decaying through the next 24 to 48 
hours. Another cold front is forecast to reach the northwest 
forecast waters Friday morning, followed by a new round of 
northwest swell. A third cold front may arrive by Sunday evening.

Farther south, combined seas in the 8-10 ft range cover the 
waters along and north of the ITCZ. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the 
ITCZ from 05N to 10N between 113W and 119W due to confluent flow
in the lower levels, and enhancement aloft from an upper level 
trough.

$$
CHRISTENSEN