000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220952
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Mar 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 04N114W to 
04N130W then resumes west of a trough near 04N133W to 04N140W. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 
10N between 113W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 04N to 12N between 117W and 123W.

In addition, scattered moderate convection in association with a
trough south of the equator is south of 02N between 85W and 104W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient will remain
tight enough to support strong to near gale force gap wind 
pulses today and early Thursday morning with the assistance of 
local overnight drainage flow. Seas will fluctuate to the 8-11 
ft range during the morning with the near gale force pulses. 
Generally moderate flow is expected starting late Friday 
morning.

Elsewhere, a 1020 mb high pressure centered near 24N120W will 
maintain gentle to fresh northwest winds across the offshore 
waters west of Baja California through this evening with seas in 
the 4-6 ft range. A cold front is expected to push into northern 
Baja California by tonight. A tight pressure gradient will 
result between the front and high pressure building behind it, 
supporting fresh to strong northwest winds off the Baja 
California coast tonight through early Friday morning. Seas off 
Baja California will build to the 6-9 ft range during that 
period. Winds will also increase across the north and central 
Gulf of California with the frontal passage tonight through 
Thursday afternoon, and across the southern Gulf of California 
Thursday evening through early Friday morning, with seas to 8 ft 
in the southern Gulf of California, as well as west-southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure will prevail over the northwest Caribbean and Gulf 
of Mexico, which will allow for the continuation of fresh to 
strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through Friday with 
seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected 
in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 05N, with seas less 
than 8 ft today through early Thursday morning. Otherwise, light 
to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to 
continue the next several days elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1020 mb located near 24N120W will dissipate 
over the next 24 hours. A cold front extends from 30N121W to 
23N132W then dissipating to 21N140W. This front will reach the 
northern Baja California peninsula and the northern Gulf of 
California tonight. Seas in the 8-10 ft range behind this front 
will propagate southeast while decaying through the next 24 to 
48 hours. Another cold front is forecast to reach the northwest 
forecast waters Friday morning, followed by a new round of 
northwest swell. A third cold front may arrive by Sunday evening.

Farther south, combined seas in the 8-10 ft range cover the 
waters along and north of the ITCZ. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the 
ITCZ from 04N to 10N between 113W and 118W due to confluent flow 
in the lower levels, and enhancement aloft from an upper level 
trough.

$$
NR