000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220210 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0215 UTC Wed Mar 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N90W to 07N107W to 04N117W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 90W and 94W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 420 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 110W and 125W. In addition, scattered moderate convection in association with a trough south of the equator is south of 02N between 96W and 102W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient will remain tight enough to support strong to near gale force gap wind pulses through the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Wednesday night with the assistance of local overnight drainage flow. Seas will will fluctuate to the 9-11 ft range over the next couple of mornings with the near gale force pulses. Generally moderate flow is expected starting late Friday morning. Northerly swell generated by this gap wind event continues to propagate southward mixing with swell generated in the Gulf of Papagayo region as well as with cross equatorial southwest swell. This is resulting in combined seas of up to 10 ft in waters just southwest of the offshore area which will continue through Wednesday night. Elsewhere, a 1019 mb high pressure centered near 24N120W will maintain gentle to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters west of Baja California through Wednesday evening with seas in the 4-6 ft range. A cold front is expected to push into northern Baja California by Wednesday night. A tight pressure gradient will result between the front and high pressure building behind it, supporting fresh to strong northwest winds off the Baja California coast Wednesday night through early Friday morning. Seas off Baja California will build to the 6-9 ft range during that period. Winds will also increase across the north and central Gulf of California with the frontal passage Wednesday night through Thursday, and across the southern Gulf of California Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning, with seas to 8 ft in the southern Gulf of California, as well as west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure will prevail over the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which will allow for the continuation of fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through Friday with seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected later tonight in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 05N, with seas less than 8 ft through Wednesday morning. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to continue the next several days elsewhere. Confluent low level flow is support moderate to strong convection along the ITCZ across the southern portion of the zones between 250 nm and 750 nm west of Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1019 mb located near 24N120W will move little over the next 24 hours. A cold front extends from 30N122W to 24N130W to 20N140W. This front will reach from 30N115W to 23N125W to 20N134W Wednesday evening, then continue eastward into the northern Baja California peninsula and the northern Gulf of California through Thursday. Seas in the 8-12 ft range behind this front will propagate southeast while decaying through the next 24 to 48 hours or so. Another cold front is forecast to reach the northwest forecast waters Friday morning, followed by a new round of northwest swell. A third cold front may arrive by Sunday night. Farther south, combined seas in the 8-10 ft range cover the waters along and north of the ITCZ. Scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the ITCZ due to confluent flow in the lower levels, and enhancement aloft from an upper level trough to the west. $$ LEWITSKY