000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191543
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1543 UTC Sun Mar 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Monday evening. Winds are forecast to remain up to 40 kt 
through early Monday morning, with seas building up to 15 ft. 
Winds will diminish to near gale force afterwards, however will 
briefly increase again to minimal gale force Monday night. 
Northerly swell generated by this gap wind event will continue to
propagate southward and mix with swell generated in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. This will result in combined seas of up to 10 ft
in waters from 04N to 12N between 92W and 115W today, and 
between 93W and 117W on Monday. Strong winds and high seas will 
persist through Thursday morning as high pressure in the Gulf of 
Mexico enhances drainage flow across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec 
into the eastern Pacific Ocean.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 03N105W to 
05N125W to 00N135W. A trough is within the ITCZ and extends from 
12N124W to 05N125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 13N between 110W and 125W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event. 

A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 23N122W will maintain 
gentle to locally moderate northwest winds across the offshore 
waters west of Baja California through early afternoon Wednesday 
with seas 4 to 6 ft. A cold front will start to move across 
northern Baja California by late Wednesday. High pressure 
building behind this front will tighten the pressure gradient in 
the region, thus resulting in the development of 20-25 kt
northwest winds off the coast of Baja California and in the
northern Gulf of California Wednesday night through Thursday 
night. Seas off Baja California will build to 8 ft during that 
period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure will prevail over the northwest Caribbean and Gulf
of Mexico, which will allow for the continuation of fresh to 
strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through early 
Thursday with seas 8 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong north to northeast
winds are also forecast in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to 
about 05N at night through early Monday morning with seas 
building up to 7 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 
combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to continue the next several
days elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1018 mb located near 23N122W will remain nearly
stationary over the next 24 hours head of an approaching cold 
front. The high pressure will dissipate by late Tuesday as the
front shifts eastward. Northwest swell of 8 to 11 ft will follow
the front north of 20N through mid week. Farther south, an upper
trough west of 125W is supporting the surface trough 12N124W to
05N125W, along with scattered moderate convection from 05N
to 13N between 110W and 125W. Seas will build over the deep
tropics south of 15N west of 125W by mid week in a combination of
trade wind swell and longer period northwest swell. 

$$

CHRISTENSEN