000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190943 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning will continue in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Monday evening. Winds are forecast to remain up to 40 kt through early Monday morning, with seas building up to 15 ft. Winds will diminish to near gale force afterwards, however will briefly increase again to minimal gale force Monday night. Northerly swell generated by this gap wind event will continue to propagate southward and mix with swell generated in the Gulf of Papagayo region. This will result in combined seas of up to 10 ft in waters from 04N to 12N between 92W and 115W on Sunday, and between 93W and 117W on Monday. Strong winds and high seas will persist through Thursday morning as high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico enhances drainage flow across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N114W to 04N121W. A trough is within the ITCZ axis and stretches from 11N122W to 04N122W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 15N between 114W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. A 1019 mb high pressure centered near 24N121W will maintain gentle to locally moderate NW winds across the offshore waters west of Baja California through early afternoon Wednesday with seas generally under 5 ft. On Wednesday night, a cold front will start to move across northern Baja California. High pressure building behind this front will tighten the pressure gradient in the region, thus resulting in the development of 20-25 kt NW winds off the coast of Baja and in the Gulf of California Wednesday night through Thursday night. Seas off Baja California will build to 8 ft during that period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure will prevail over the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which will allow for the continuation of fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Thursday. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are also forecast in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 05N at night through early Monday morning with seas building up to 7 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to continue the next several days elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1019 mb located near 24N121W will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. A cold front is moving across the NW waters and extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center near 29N134W to beyond 23N140W. Seas of 8-9 ft in NW swell follow the front. The low will move NE and north of the forecast area in about 24 hours, dragging the weakening front across the north waters through Monday morning while a reinforcing cold front enter the NW forecast waters. The second cold front is expected to reach northern Baja California by late Wednesday. Moderate to locally fresh trades will persist elsewhere across the tropical Pacific with combined seas of 5-7 ft through Monday. Another cold front is forecast to reach the NW forecast waters by early Friday morning, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and building seas of up to 11 ft. $$ NR