000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190231 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Mar 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning will continue in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Monday night. Winds are forecast to increase to 40 kt tonight through Monday morning, with seas building up to 15 ft. then, winds are forecast to diminish slightly below gale force Monday afternoon but will increase again to minimal gale force Monday night. Northerly swell generated by this gap wind event will continue to propagate southward and mix with swell generated in the Gulf of Papagayo region. This will result in combined seas of up to 10 ft in waters from 05N to 12N between 90W and 112W on Sunday, and between 90W and 118W on Monday. Strong winds and high seas will persist through Thursday morning as high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico enhances drainage flow across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03.5N114W to 04N120W to 01N131W. A trough is within the ITCZ axis and stretches from 11N122W to 03N125W. Scattered moderate convection is E of trough and N of the ITCZ to 118W. A second trough extends from 07N98W to 02N102W. Isolated moderate convection is near the trough axis. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 25N123W will maintain gentle to locally moderate NW winds across the offshore waters west of Baja California through Monday with seas generally under 5 ft. By late Monday into Tuesday, expect NW winds in the 15-20 kt range within about 75 nm of the coast of Baja California as the pressure gradient slightly tightens there. A weakening cold front is expected to push into northern Baja California by late Wednesday and extend across the southern Gulf of California and southern Baja California by Thursday morning. A tight pressure gradient will result between the front and high pressure building behind it. This will support fresh to strong NW winds off the Baja California coast Thursday to Friday morning. Winds are forecast to also increase across the northern Gulf of California or Sea of Cortez with the frontal passage Wednesday evening and night. Currently, marine guidance shows SW-W winds of 20-25 kt and building seas of 6-7 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure will prevail over the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which will allow for the continuation of fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through mid next week. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are also forecast in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 05N at night. Seas will build to 5- 7 ft in this area, including offshore of the Azuero Peninsula through Sunday night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to continue the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1018 mb located near 25N123W will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. A cold front is moving across the NW waters and extends from a weak 1015 mb low pressure near 29N135W to beyond 24N140W. Seas of 8-9 ft in NW swell follow the front. The low will move NE and north of the forecast area in about 24 hours, dragging the weakening front across the north waters through Monday. A reinforcing cold front will enter the NW forecast waters Monday morning and is expected to reach northern Baja California by late Wednesday. Moderate to locally fresh trades will persist elsewhere across the tropical Pacific with combined seas of 5-7 ft through Monday. Another cold front is forecast to reach the NW forecast waters late on Thursday, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and building seas of up to 15-16 ft. $$ GR