000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180813
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale warning will continue in effect for the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Monday. Strong winds and high seas will 
persist through Thursday morning as high pressure in the 
northern Gulf of Mexico enhances drainage flow across the 
Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Winds are 
forecast to increase to 40 kt Saturday through Monday morning 
with seas building up to 14 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish 
below gale force Monday night. Northerly swell generated by this 
gap wind event will propagate southward and mix with swell 
generated in the Gulf of Papagayo. This will result in combined 
seas of up to 9 ft in waters from 05N to 10N between 92W and 
100W on Saturday, and between 90W and 112W on Sunday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The Intertropical Convergence Zone remains south of the Equator.
A trough axis extends from 07N91W to 03N97W to 03N101W. Isolated 
moderate convection is noted within about 90 nm either side of 
the trough axis.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event. 

A center of high pressure of 1020 mb centered near 26N124W will 
shift SE today with associated ridge extending SE from the high 
to the Revillagigedo Islands. The high then will remain nearly 
stationary through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate NW winds and 4 to 
5 ft seas are expected to continue the next couple of days. A 
weakening cold front is expected to push into northern Baja 
California Wednesday night and extend across the southern Gulf 
of California and southern Baja California by Thursday night. A 
tight pressure gradient will result between the front and high 
pressure building behind it, thus leading to the development of 
fresh to strong NW winds off the Baja California coast Thursday 
to Friday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure will prevail over the NW Caribbean and Gulf of 
Mexico, which will allow for the continuation of fresh to strong 
gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through mid next week. 
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are also forecast in the Gulf of 
Panama and downwind to about 05N at night. Seas will build to 5-
7 ft in this area, including offshore of the Azuero Peninsula 
through Sunday night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 
combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to continue the next 
several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1020 mb near 26N124W will shift SE today, ahead 
of a cold front currently moving across the far NW corner of the 
forecast area. The front will stall early Sunday morning along 
30N132W to 27N135W to 23N140W with a possible low forming along 
the front. The low will then move N-NE dragging the front across 
the north waters Monday. A new cold front will enter the NW 
forecast waters Monday morning and is expected to reach northern 
Baja California early Wednesday afternoon. Moderate to locally 
fresh trades will persist elsewhere across the tropical Pacific 
with combined seas of 5-7 ft through Sunday.

$$
NR