000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171600
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale warning is expected to remain in effect for the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Monday evening. Model guidance shows maximum 
winds dipping slightly below gale force this evening and again 
Saturday evening between 1800 and 0300 UTC but very strong winds 
and high seas will persist several more days as high pressure 
northeast of the area in the northern Gulf of Mexico enhances 
drainage flow from the Gulf of Mexico across the isthmus of 
Tehuantepec into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Winds are likely to 
increase to 40 kt Saturday night through Sunday night. Northerly 
swell generated by this gap wind event will propagate southward 
and mix with swell generated in the Gulf of Papagayo. This will 
result in combined seas of up to 9 ft in waters from 05N to 12N 
between 93W and 109W this weekend.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The convergence zone remains south of the equator. A trough axis 
extends from 05N89W to 03N98W, with scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection from 03N to 06N between 91W and 97W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec high wind event. 

High pressure centered near 30N126W will weaken and shift 
southward through Saturday. A ridge extending southeast from the 
high to the Revillagigedo Islands will persist through the 
weekend. Gentle to moderate NW winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are 
expected the continue the next couple of days. A weakening cold 
front is expected to push into northern Baja California Tuesday 
night and extend across the southern Gulf of California and 
southern Baja California by Wednesday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure over the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico supports 
a fresh to strong gap wind event across the Gulf of Papagayo and 
Gulf of Fonseca this morning. Scatterometer data at 0330 UTC 
showed 25 kt winds downstream from Papagayo. The gap wind event 
in the Gulf of Papagayo will persist through Monday. Fresh N-NE 
winds are also forecast across the Gulf of Panama and downwind 
to about 05N at night. Seas will build to 5-7 ft in this area, 
including offshore of the Azuero Peninsula through Saturday 
night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 
ft are expected to continue the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure near 30N126W will shift SE ahead of a cold front 
approaching from the west. Fresh to strong SW flow ahead of the 
front is expected to continue over far northwest forecast waters 
through tonight. The front will stall and weaken from 30N132W to 
24N140W Saturday night. A second push of cold air will overtake 
the first front Tuesday. Fresh winds are expected on either side 
of the combined front as it pushes westward into Baja California.
Moderate to locally fresh trades will persist elsewhere across 
the tropical Pacific with combined seas of 5-7 ft through Sunday.

$$
Mundell