000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1503 UTC Wed Mar 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Gale force winds continue to spill across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and spread downwind towards the south and southwest this morning. A ship with call-sign 2HDG2 recently reported gale force winds and 10 ft seas just south of the area, and nearby seas may be higher. The peak winds are expected to increase slightly to near 40 kt late tonight through Thursday night. Minimal gale force winds will then persist into the weekend with peak winds expected during late night and early morning hours. Northerly swell generated by this gap wind event will propagate southward and mix with long-period southwest swell from the southern hemisphere, resulting in combined seas of 8 ft or greater covering the waters from 08N to 13N between 95W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... No monsoon trough is present east of 140W. A trough axis extends from 06N83W to 02N96W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N115W to 06N125W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the axis between 116W and 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. A 1022 mb high pressure center is located near 32N132W and extends a ridge SE across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California to offshore of Manzanillo, Mexico near 16.5N105W. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds and seas generally under 5 ft are noted across these waters under the influence of the ridge. Gentle and variable winds and seas of 2 ft or less are inside the Gulf of California. These general marine conditions will persist through the rest of the work week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds are expected across and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to 8-9 ft during the strongest winds. Winds could briefly reach 25-30 kt early Thursday morning before diminishing to 20-25 kt during the day. Look for building high pressure across the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to induce strong NE gap winds from Papagayo to the Gulf of Fonseca Thursday night and Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are also forecast across the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 04N-05N at night beginning late tonight into early Thursday. Seas will build to 5-7 ft in this area, including offshore of the Azuero Peninsula. These weather conditions will likely persist through early Friday afternoon. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to continue through the week and into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb surface high centered near 32N132W will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. A cold front is forecast to briefly clip the far NW corner of the area by this afternoon, then lift back NW before another cold front approaches from the west. Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected ahead of the second front late tonight into early Friday, with the front entering the forecast region Friday afternoon. This front will reach from 30N134W to beyond 25N140W Friday night, and from 30N131W to 24N140W on Saturday while weakening. A pulse of large northwest swell will arrive behind the front for the end of the week into the upcoming weekend building seas up to 11 ft. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will persist elsewhere across the open tropical Pacific waters. Combined seas will be in the 5-7 ft range, but will build along and south of 10N Saturday and Saturday night as fresh swells generated by central American gap wind events propagate westward. $$ LEWITSKY