000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141501 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1501 UTC Tue Mar 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING WARNING... North winds blowing through the Chivelas pass and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight have increased to minimal gale force early this morning with seas building to 12 ft. Gale force winds will further increase to near 40 kt tonight with max seas of 15-17 ft by early Wednesday. The winds may briefly diminish below gale force Wednesday afternoon, but will increase to 30-45 kt Wednesday evening and night. Minimal gale force winds will then persist into the weekend with peak winds expected during late night and early morning hours. Northeast swell generated by this gap wind event will propagate southwest-west and mix with long-period southwest swell from the southern hemisphere, resulting in combined seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to 09N between 93W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 07N81W to 03N90W to 01N100W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N113W to 05N120W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm north of the trough between 83W and 89W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. A weak surface ridge is west of Baja California, centered on a 1023 mb high near 32N131W. Gentle to moderate northwest wind flow is expected through the week and into the upcoming weekend, with seas remaining in the 3-5 ft range. Similar winds are expected inside the Gulf of California, but with more variable direction due to afternoon heating. Seas will mainly be 2 ft or less inside the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo through today, then will increase to fresh to strong tonight. Fresh to strong nocturnal winds will continue to pulse there through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to around 8 ft during the strongest winds. Northerly nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Wednesday evening, increasing to fresh to strong by early Thursday morning, and then pulsing to fresh again at night thereafter. Seas will be in the 4-6 ft range in this area including offshore of the Azuero Peninsula will, building to 7 ft Friday morning with a longer fetch of fresh winds. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to continue through the week and into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A nearly stationary 1023 mb surface high centered near 32N131W will weaken and shift slightly eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front attempts to cross 30N140W with little luck. The high will build back westward Thursday, then will shift east again by Thursday night as a stronger cold front approaches. Fresh to strong southerly flow ahead of the second front is possible Thursday night through Friday, with the front moving past 30N140W Friday afternoon and evening. A set of large northwest swell will arrive behind the front for the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will persist elsewhere across the open tropical Pacific waters. Combined seas will be in the 4-7 ft range, but will build along and south of 10N Saturday and Saturday night as fresh swells generated by central American gap wind events propagate westward. $$ LEWITSKY