000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140909 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Mar 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... North winds blowing through the Chivelas pass and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight have quickly increased to 20-30 kt since sunset, and are expected to reach minimal gale force in the next few hours, with seas building to 11 ft near 15N95W. Gale force winds will further increase to near 40 kt Tuesday evening with max seas of 15-16 ft by Tuesday night. The winds may briefly diminish below gale force Wed afternoon, but increase again to 30 to 35 kt Wednesday evening, and persist into the weekend with peak winds expected during late night and early morning hours. NE swell generated by this gap high wind event will propagate southwest and mix with long-period SW swell from the southern hemisphere, resulting in combined seas of 8 ft or greater reaching 09N between 95W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A convergence line-ITCZ extends from 07.5N82.5W to 04.5N88W to 02N100W. A weak ITCZ extends from 05N112W to 05n120w to 02N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm N and 30 nm S of the axis between 82W and 95W. A trough meanders S of the Equator between 00N and 03.4S between 88W and 110W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01.5N to 03S E of 85.5W... and from 01.5S to 03.5S between 97W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge is west of Baja California, centered on a 1023 mb high near 32N131W. Gentle to moderate NW wind flow is expected through Wednesday west of Cabo Corrientes, with seas remaining in the 4-5 ft range. Similar winds are expected inside the Gulf of California but with more variable direction due to afternoon heating. The Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event described above will dominate the offshore marine weather between 93W and 98W for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected to continue through Wednesday. Fresh nocturnal drainage winds will increase offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo this morning and then slightly stronger again tonight through Wednesday morning. By Wednesday, model guidance indicates a strong diurnal pulsing of local winds will prevail in the usual favored gap wind areas Thursday through Saturday. Swell generated by the gap winds will spread west-southwest and merge with seas associated with the Gulf of Tehuantepec to create a large area of 7-9 ft seas north of 07N and east of 100W by Friday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A nearly stationary surface high centered near 32N131W will weaken and shift southward Wednesday as a cold front pushes into the far NW waters. The front will weaken Wednesday night and Thursday morning then lift north of the area Thursday afternoon. Moderate to fresh trades will persist south of the high and west of 115W through Friday. A strong cold front reaching 30N140w on Friday will extend from 30N133W to 23N140w on Saturday. $$ Stripling