000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132121
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

North winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will quickly increase to 
a strong breeze this evening, then minimal gale force by sunrise 
Tuesday, with seas building to 11 ft near 15N95W. Gale force 
winds will persist through Tuesday and further increase to near 
40 kt in the evening with max seas of 15-16 ft Tuesday night. 
The winds may briefly diminish below gale force Wed afternoon, 
but increase again to 30 to 35 kt Wednesday evening, and persist 
into the weekend with peak winds expected during late night and 
early morning hours. NE swell generated by this gap wind event 
will propagate southwest and mix with long-period SW swell from 
the southern hemisphere, resulting in combined seas of 8 ft or 
greater reaching 09N between 95W and 103W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A weak ITCZ extends from 04N118W to 02N135W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 02N to 03N between 122W and 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge is west of Baja California. Gentle NW flow 
is expected through Wednesday morning west of 98W including the 
Gulf of California. The Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event above 
will dominate the offshore marine weather between 93W and 98W 
the next several days. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are expected 
to continue through Wednesday. Fresh drainage winds will bump up 
the winds in the Gulf of Papagayo Wednesday morning, and model 
guidance indicates a strong diurnal pulsing of local winds will 
prevail in favored gap wind areas Thursday through Saturday. 
Swell generated by the gap winds will spread west-southwest and 
merge with seas associated with the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A nearly stationary surface high centered near 33N131W will 
weaken and shift southward Wednesday as a cold front pushes into 
the far NW waters. The front will weaken Wednesday night and 
Thursday morning then lift north of the area Thursday afternoon. 
Moderate to fresh trades are expected to persist south of the 
high and west of 115W through Friday. A strong cold front will 
reach 30N140w on Friday.  

$$ 
Mundell