000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Mar 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends sw along the pacific coast of Colombia to the extreme nw coast of Equador with isolated moderate to convection flaring intermittently over and just offshore the coast of Colombia. A 1009 mb surface low pressure is analyzed at 01S85W with a surface trough extending sw to a second 1009 mb low at 03.4S100W with the trough continuing nw to near 01S106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 03S82W to 01S87W to 03.4S95W to 02N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 06N77W to 06N85W to 02N96W. Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms near 05N115W and extends wsw to near 01N140W with isolated strong convection flaring w of 130W within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ axis. A surface trough is analyzed along the w boundary of the discussion area from 03N141W to 12N137W with scattered moderate convection noted to the n of 07N within 90 nm of the trough axis. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge will extend from nw to se across the offshore beyond 180 nm seaward from near 22N116W to 16N106W. Gentle to moderate w to nw flow to the w of 105W will diminish to a light to gentle nw breeze tonight becoming light and variable near 27N118W, except for a narrow swath of moderate nw winds forecast to pulse near 20N106W. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong to near gale force gap event will begin late tonight and continuing through late morning on Mon then diminishing briefly on Mon afternoon. The strong to near gale conditions will resume on Mon evening and continue through Tue afternoon, with guidance suggesting gale conditions beginning on Tue evening and continuing through mid morning on Wed. Another gale event expected Wed evening through sunrise Thu. The highest seas are forecast to about 14 ft downstream of the gulf near 14.5N95.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh drainage winds expected tonight and again on Mon night with a narrow swath of strong ne winds forecast on Tue and Wed nights. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh nocturnal flow expected tonight and again on Mon nights. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the gap events. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A nearly stationary surface high is centered near 32N132W and is maintaining broad ridging over the forecast area with fresh ne trades across the tropics from 05N to 15N w of 120W tonight into Mon, with mixed swell resulting in combined seas of 6 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds will develop from 30N to 32N between 120W and 126W today, and continue through Mon morning. Fresh sw winds, and 6 to 9 ft seas, will develop across the waters, n of 30N w of 136W on Tue ahead of a cold front reaching 30N140W late Tue night. The front will stall on Wed, and drift back n of 32N by early Thu. $$ Nelson