000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120923
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ and associated convection remain south of the equator.  

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening surface ridge will extend from NW-SE west of Baja 
California the next few days, centered on high pressure just N 
of the area along 130W. Gentle to moderate NW wind flow across 
the waters overnight will diminish to a light to gentle breeze 
across most of the area by later today through Tuesday as the 
ridge weakens. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW swell overnight are 
expected to gradually diminish to 4-5 ft by tonight.

Inside the Gulf of California, global models suggest light to 
moderate mostly NW wind flow will prevail for the next few days, 
but will be influenced by afternoon heating and sea breeze 
effects. Seas are expected to remain less than 3 ft except 
between the Islas Tres Marias and the entrance to the gulf, 
where SW swell will mix to maintain seas to 3-4 ft.

The next gap wind event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec will begin 
early Monday with fresh to strong northerly winds expected near 
sunrise. Winds will diminish during the day, then re-intensify 
Monday evening and continue through Tuesday, with model guidance 
suggesting gale conditions possible Tuesday night and Wednesday 
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal NE flow is expected downwind 
of the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama through tonight. Light to 
gentle winds and combined seas of 4-6 ft expected elsewhere 
through Tuesday. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A nearly stationary subtropical high will remain near 32N130W 
through Tuesday. Fresh to locally strong NE trades will persist 
across the tropics from 05N to 15N west of 128W the next several 
days. Combined seas will be 6-9 ft in mixed swell across the 
area through Monday. Fresh SW winds and building seas to 9 ft 
will develop across the waters north of 30N west of 136W Tuesday 
ahead of a cold front reaching 30N140W Tuesday night. The front 
will stall on Wednesday, and drift back north of 32N Thursday.  

$$ 
Stripling