000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110945
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ remains south of the equator. A weak trough extends 
from 03N87W to 03.5N97W to low pres near 01N101W 1009 mb. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 150 
nm N of trough between 87W and 89W, and within 120 nm N of 
trough and low between 100W and 102.5W. A cluster of scattered 
to numerous strong convection has shifted off of Ecuador and 
over water from 03S to 02N between 80.5W and 85W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge persists across the waters west of Baja 
California tonight, from 1025 mb high pres near 31.5N130W 
southeastward to near 14N109W. The ridge is expected to shift 
slightly west and weaken through Monday. Gentle to moderate 
northwest wind flow west of Cabo Corrientes will diminish to a 
light to gentle breeze by Sunday. Seas will generally remain in 
the 4-5 ft range in mixed NW swell. Similarly, moderate NW winds 
inside the Gulf of California will diminish modestly through 
Monday. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds to 25 kt across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through sunrise, with the 
maximum seas building to near 8 ft, before winds and seas 
diminish to 20 kt and 6 ft by mid afternoon, then shift onshore 
this evening. Another gap event will develop early Monday, with 
model guidance suggesting a brief period of gale winds possible 
Tuesday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: A swath of strong NE winds are expected across 
the waters from 10N to 12.5N between 86W-89W through sunrise. 
The strong winds will create NE swell that will mix with cross 
equatorial SW swell, creating an area of seas to 8 ft near 
08N98W early this morning. winds will diminish to less than 20 
kt by late afternoon, and then pulse to 20-25 kt briefly again 
tonight. Light to gentle winds and combined seas of 4-6 ft are 
occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating from the 
weakening gap wind events. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A nearly stationary 1025 mb surface high near 31.5N130W supports 
a broad ridge over the forecast area with fresh ne trades across 
the tropics from 07N to 15N west of 114W, which will continue 
for a few more days. Mixed swell will produce combined 7-9 ft 
seas across much the area west of 120W through early Monday.
 
$$ 
Stripling