000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101549
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

A surface trough extends w from 04N88W to a 1009 mb surface low 
pressure to 01N99W. Scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ 
forms near 03.4S102W, and wiggles w to beyond 03.4S116W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 
along the Pacific coast of Colombia within 60 nm of 06N78W, and 
along the surface trough within 60 nm either side of a line from 
04N88W to 01N94W. A second branch of the ITCZ forms near 07N135W 
and extends w beyond 06N140W with a few clusters forming just to 
the n.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge from 22N116W to 14N97W will shift seaward of 200 
nm on Sat. Gentle to moderate w to nw flow to the w of 105W will 
diminish to a light to gentle breeze late in the weekend, except 
for a narrow swath of moderate nw winds forecast pulsing near 
19.5N105.5W. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly winds 
will develop again this evening across and downstream of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, and continue through sunrise on Sat 
morning, with the maximum seas building to 10 ft near 14.5N95W 
tonight. Another gap event will begin late Sun night and again 
on Mon night, with guidance suggesting gale conditions on Tue 
evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: An area of strong ne winds are expected
across the waters from 09N to 12.5N between 86W and 89W tonight.
Guidance suggests one last brief nocturnal surge on Sat night. 
These strong winds will create a ne swell that will propagate sw 
mixing with cross equatorial sw swell resulting in an area of 
seas to 8 ft near 08N98W tonight.  

Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh nocturnal flow expected for 
tonight and on Sat night. 
  
Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are 
occurring elsewhere outside of the swells originating near the 
gap events. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A nearly stationary surface high is centered near 33N129W and is 
maintaining broad ridging over the forecast area with fresh ne 
trades across the tropics from 07N to 15N w of 114W for the next 
several days. Mixed swell will result in combined seas of 6 to 9 
ft across the area through early Mon.
 
$$ 
Nelson