000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100836
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

Surface trough from low pres near 00.5N92W 1009 MB to 02N98.5W. 
ITCZ from 03.4S99W to 02S102W to 03.4S108W. Clusters of 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted within 180 
nm either side of trough and low.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Deep layered high pressure is forecast to persist from offshore 
of southern California south and southeast across the discussion 
area through the upcoming weekend. An associated surface high 
will persist just north of the area along about 130W and produce 
a meander ridge SW to beyond 27N140W, and southeastward to near 
16N108W during this time. This pattern will produce gentle to 
moderate NW flow across the waters off of Baja California 
through Friday, then increasing very slightly over the weekend. 
Seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell will generally prevail. Similar 
winds can be expected across all but the southern Gulf of 
California, except for moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds 
from Manzanillo, Mexico to the southern gulf waters through 
early Saturday before diminishing slightly over the weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly winds will continue across 
and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through sunrise on 
Saturday morning, with the maximum seas building to 9-10 ft just 
after sunrise this morning. The next gap high wind event is 
expected to begin Monday night, with model guidance suggesting 
gale conditions are possible by Tuesday evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: A moderately large area of strong NE winds is 
expected across the waters from 09.5N to 12.5N east of 88.5W 
through late morning today, before diminishing late this 
afternoon and evening, then pulsing 20-25 kt again tonight 
through Saturday morning. Global models suggests one last brief 
nocturnal surge on Saturday night before winds weaken across the 
region through at least Monday. 
  
Light to gentle winds and combined seas of 4-6 ft are occurring 
elsewhere, outside of NE swell originating near the gap winds. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Nearly stationary high pressure centered near 33N130W maintains 
a broad ridge over the forecast area. A small area of strong NE 
trades across the tropics from 07.5N to 11N between 127W and 
140W will diminish to a fresh breeze by afternoon. Recent 
altimeter data indicates seas of 9-12 ft with NW swell across 
this area. Mixed swell will result in combined seas of 5 to 8 ft 
across the remainder of the area through Sunday night.
 
$$ 
Stripling