000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 720 UTC Thu Mar 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ axis extends from 03N104W to 03N111W to 05N115W to 06N123W to 05N130W to beyond 03N140W. No significant convection is present. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...A lingering high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will keep strong to near gale force north to northeast gap winds funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Saturday night. Model guidance has been trending lower with wind speeds during this event, so winds are expected to top out at around 30 kt early this morning. The high will shift east into the Atlantic and the pressure gradient over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will relax until Monday, when a cold front entering the Gulf of Mexico will start the next gap wind event. Model guidance suggests gales will be likely by Wednesday morning. High pressure centered north of the area near 34N131W ridges southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds and seas will continue to diminish in the Gulf of California and west of Baja California tonight as the pressure gradient across NW Mexico weakens. The high will remain nearly stationary north of the discussion area through the weekend. North of Cabo Corrientes...winds will be generally from the northwest at gentle to moderate speeds. Seas will subside from 5 to 7 ft to 4 to 6 ft by Sunday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong trade winds in the western Caribbean Sea are funneling through gaps in Central America. The Gulf of Papagayo continues to experience fresh to strong gap wind flow from the northeast to east. Strong winds will continue to pulse primarily during the late night and early morning hours in the Gulf of Papagayo through Saturday morning. Seas will peak around 10 ft each morning. High pressure north the Caribbean will be weakened by low pressure to the north during the first half of next week, allowing the gap winds to subside. Fresh winds will pulse over the Gulf of Panama through late morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Subtropical high pressure centered near 34N131W will maintain broad ridging over the forecast area from Baja California westward to 140W. Model guidance remains in good agreement in keeping the high parked near its current position through the weekend. Ridging over forecast waters north of the ITCZ will be strong enough to maintain an area of fresh to occasionally strong trade winds and 8-10 ft seas in mixed swell. The area will spread from roughly from 04N to 20N west of 120W today, but will slowly shrink as it retreats westward through Monday. Some reinforcing NW swell will reach the northwest corner of the discussion area later today, but it will quickly decay as the associated frontal boundary stalls and weakens to the northwest of the area. Seas of around 8 ft associated with this swell will be confined to the north of 25N and west of 135W. $$ cam