000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Mar 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ axis extends from 06N118W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm south of the ITCZ axis west of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to induce strong north to northeast gap winds tonight funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The trend in GFS model winds during the past several model runs has been weaker, and the latest 18Z model only shows peak winds 34 kt at 03Z and below gale force at other times tonight. Expect near-gale 30 kt winds overnight. Nocturnal winds will remain fresh to strong through Saturday morning, then the high will shift east into the Atlantic and the pressure gradient relaxes. High pressure centered north of the area near 33N130W ridges southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds and seas will continue to diminish in the Gulf of California and west of Baja California tonight as the pressure gradient across NW Mexico weakens. The high will remain nearly stationary north of the discussion area through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong trade winds in the western Caribbean Sea are funneling through gaps in Central America such as the Gulf of Papagayo. Strong winds will continue to pulse primarily during late night and early morning hours in the Gulf of Papagayo through Saturday morning. Seas will peak around 9-10 ft each morning. High pressure in the Caribbean is expected to remain weak during the first half of next week, maintaining a calmer weather pattern. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Panama through late morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Subtropical high pressure centered near 33N130W extends a broad ridge southward west of Baja California to 15N. Model guidance is in good agreement keeping the high nearly stationary through the weekend, with ridging staying well established over forecast waters north of the ITCZ. An area of fresh trade winds and 8-10 ft seas in mixed swell currently from 04N to 20N west of 120W will slowly shrink in size and shift westward through Monday. Reinforcing NW swell will reach the northwest corner of the discussion area later today from a stationary front, but it will quickly decay as the front weakens and lifts north of the area. Seas to 7-8 ft associated with this swell will be mainly north of 25N and west of 135W. $$ Mundell