000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081455
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1145 UTC Wed Mar 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1415 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ axis extends from 04N97W to 05N118W to 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 05N W of 
128W.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING WARNING...

High pressure is building in north of a frontal boundary that is 
stalling over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The high is strong 
enough to induce a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
that started this morning, which is forecast to continue through 
Saturday. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are 20 to 25 kt, 
but will reach minimal gale force tonight. Winds will diminish 
below gale force by midday on Thursday, however fresh to near 
gale force winds will continue to pulse through Saturday morning 
when the high finally shifts east into Atlantic waters resulting 
in the relaxation of the pressure gradient.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered north of the area near 33N130W ridges 
southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the high and low pressure over western Mexico 
supports moderate to fresh N to NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in 
the central and southern Gulf of California and 4 to 7 ft off 
the western coast of Baja. Winds and seas will quickly diminish 
today as the area of low pressure fills and the pressure 
gradient relaxes. The high is expected to remain nearly 
stationary and centered just to the north of the discussion area 
through the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure currently 
centered near Bermuda and stationary low pressure over Colombia 
is funneling fresh to strong winds into the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Strong winds will continue to pulse primarily during late night 
and early morning hours in the Gulf of Papagayo through Saturday 
morning. Seas will peak between 8 and 11 feet each morning. As 
the high near Bermuda migrates farther east, winds and seas will 
further decrease over the Gulf of Papagayo on Saturday and 
Sunday. High pressure over the Caribbean is expected to remain 
weaker during the first half of next week, maintaining the 
calmer weather pattern. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse 
over the Gulf of Panama at night through Thursday morning, 
then will decrease mainly to moderate through Friday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Subtropical high pressure centered near 33N130W extends a broad 
ridge southeastward west of Baja California to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Latest model guidance is in good 
agreement in keeping the high nearly stationary through the 
weekend, with ridging staying well established over forecast 
waters north of the ITCZ. An area of fresh to strong winds and 8 
to 10 ft seas in mixed swell currently extends from 04N to 23N 
west 120W will slowly shrink in size and shift westward toward 
140W through Monday morning. A batch of reinforcing NW swell 
will move into the northwest corner of the discussion area on 
Thursday due to a stationary front, but it will quickly decay as 
the front quickly weaken and lift north of the area. Seas of 8 
to 9 ft associated with this new swell will be confined to west 
of 135W.

$$
NR