000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070345
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 07 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ axis extends from 04N90W to 02N104W to 02N111W to 
02N130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of axis 
between 90W-92W, and between 94W-98W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1027 mb centered north of the area near 33N127W 
extends a ridge southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a 
trough of low pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to 
fresh northwest winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range over the 
offshore waters off the west coast of the Baja California 
peninsula. The gradient between the ridge and troughing over the 
Baja California Peninsula has tightened this afternoon. This has 
induced a small swath of strong northwest winds within 60 nm of 
the coast of Baja California from 24N to 29N. Ship "C6TX6" 
reported north winds of 25 kt Monday afternoon at position near
28N115W.

Light to gentle winds prevail across much of the Gulf of 
California, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere 
over the forecast waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over much 
of the waters off the southwest coast of Mexico, though reaching 
7 ft in areas of stronger winds. Seas are generally 3 ft or less 
over the Gulf of California. The gradient between the 
aforementioned high pressure ridge and troughing will tighten 
slightly through Tuesday increasing northwest winds across 
portions of the Gulf of California to the strong range, with 
expected to build to mainly around 7 ft in the central part of 
the gulf with possible small spots there reaching 8 ft.
Seas off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula will 
build to 8 ft today. The strong northwest winds mentioned earlier
within 60 nm of the coast of the Baja California are forecast to 
diminish by early on Tuesday afternoon. The 1027 mb high center 
is forecast to remain nearly stationary through Tuesday morning, 
then move slightly north Wednesday evening and Thursday allowing 
for winds and seas to decrease over the Gulf of California, and 
further decrease over the offshore waters of the Baja California 
Peninsula.

Winds have veered over the Gulf of Mexico, and as a result
northerly winds funneling though the Chivela Pass into the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec have diminished to the fresh range as noted in 
the 1630Z Ascat pass from Monday. Residual north swell with 
combined seas of 9 ft observed Monday afternoon have subsided to 
7 ft this evening. This swell is forecast by wave model guidance 
to continue to decay tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure 
building across the southeast United States will help tighten 
the pressure gradient over the area and induce the next Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event. Winds will strengthen over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Wednesday morning, with gale conditions possible 
Wednesday night through Thursday night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between high pressure off the east coast of
the United States and climatological low pressure over Colombia
is helping to maintain a large area of fresh to strong trades 
over the Caribbean waters. These winds are funneling into the 
Gulf of Papagayo. With the added component of nocturnal drainage 
flow, winds will reach near 25 kt during the late night and 
early evening hours over the Gulf of Papagayo. A progressive 
pattern will see the area of high pressure shifting further from 
the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days,
followed by another area of high pressure building back across 
this area. This will maintain the tight pressure gradient and the
pulsing winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. This 
synoptic pattern will support fresh winds pulsing over the Gulf 
of Panama during the late night and early morning hours through 
the week.

Elsewhere...light to gentle breezes and seas of 4-6 ft will 
prevail through mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure centered north of the area near 33N127W extends a 
ridge southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
within the equatorial trough is supporting moderate to fresh 
trades over the tradewind belt north of the equatorial trough to 
near 20N. Northwesterly swell is propagating into the northern 
waters, with seas reaching 9 ft north of a line from 29N116W to 
25N126W to 25N136W. The area of high pressure will continue 
north of the area through the forecast period. This will 
maintain the area of moderate to fresh trades over the area. The 
northwest swell will continue to propagate southward and combine 
with wind waves generated by the trades. This will bring 
combined seas of 8 ft of greater over much of the area from 
about 06N to 21N west of 115W by Wednesday. 

$$
Aguirre