000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070343 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Mar 06 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ axis extends from 04N90W to 01N110W to 02N120W to 02N130W. No convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1028 mb centered north of the area near 32N126W extends a ridge southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a trough of low pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh northwest winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range over the offshore waters off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. The gradient between the ridge and troughing over the Baja California Peninsula has tightened this afternoon. This has induced a small swath of strong northwest winds within 60 nm of the coast of Baja California from 24N to 29N. Ship "C6TX6" just recently reported north winds of 25 kt at position of 28N115W. Light to gentle winds prevail across much of the Gulf of California, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere over the forecast waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over much of the waters off the southwest coast of Mexico, though reaching 7 ft in areas of stronger winds. Seas are generally 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. The gradient between the aforementioned high pressure ridge and troughing will tighten slightly through Tuesday increasing northwest winds across portions of the Gulf of California to the strong range, with expected to build to mainly around 7 ft in the central part of the gulf with possible small spots there reaching 8 ft. Seas off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula will build to 8 ft today. The strong northwest winds mentioned earlier within 60 nm of the coast of the Baja California are forecast to diminish on Tuesday. The 1028 mb high center is forecast to remain nearly stationary through Tuesday, then weaken slightly on Wednesday allowing for winds and seas to decrease over the Gulf of California, and further decrease over the offshore waters of the Baja California Peninsula. Winds have veered over the Gulf of Mexico, and as a result northerly winds funneling though the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to the fresh range as noted in the 1630Z Ascat pass. However, residual north swell with combined seas of 9 ft remains in the vicinity of the gulf as reported by ship "A8NQ6" near position of 15N95W. This swell is forecast by wave model guidance to decay late tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure building across the southeast United States will help tighten the pressure gradient over the area and induce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Winds will strengthen over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wednesday morning, with gale conditions possible Wednesday night through Thursday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure off the east coast of the United States and climatological low pressure over Colombia is helping to maintain a large area of fresh to strong trades over the Caribbean waters. These winds are funneling into the Gulf of Papagayo. With the added component of nocturnal drainage flow, winds will reach near 25 kt during the late night and early evening hours over the Gulf of Papagayo. A progressive pattern will see the area of high pressure shifting further from the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, followed by another area of high pressure building back across this area. This will maintain the tight pressure gradient and the pulsing winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. This synoptic pattern will support fresh winds pulsing over the Gulf of Panama during the late night and early morning hours through the week. Elsewhere...light to gentle breezes and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered north of the area near 31N132W extends a ridge southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the equatorial trough is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the tradewind belt north of the equatorial trough to near 20N. Northwesterly swell is propagating into the northern waters, with seas reaching 9 ft north of a line from 29N116W to 25N126W to 25N136W. The area of high pressure will continue north of the area through the forecast period. This will maintain the area of moderate to fresh trades over the area. The northwest swell will continue to propagate southward and combine with wind waves generated by the trades. This will bring combined seas of 8 ft of greater over much of the area from about 06N to 21N west of 115W by Wednesday. $$ Aguirre