000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061500 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1145 UTC Mon Mar 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 01N101W to 01N132W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered north of the area near 31N132W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a trough of low pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh northwest winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range over the offshore waters off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. A locally tighter gradient is supporting a small area of strong winds from 17N to 19N between 105W and 107W. light to gentle winds prevail across much of the Gulf of California, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere over the forecast waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over much of the waters off southwest Mexico, though reaching 7 ft in areas of stronger winds. Seas are generally 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. The area of high pressure will build slightly today and tomorrow, strengthening winds off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today, and parts of the Gulf of California Tuesday. Seas off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula will build to 8 ft today. The area of high pressure will remain, but will weaken slightly midweek. This will bring a decrease to winds and seas over these areas midweek. Winds have veered over the Gulf of Mexico and winds funneling though the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to decrease. Strong winds continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but by this evening, winds and seas will diminish below advisory criteria. High pressure building across the southeast United States will help tighten the pressure gradient over the area wind bring the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Winds will strengthen over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wednesday morning, with gale conditions possible Wednesday night through Thursday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure off the east coast of the United States and climatological low pressure over Colombia is helping for a large area of fresh to strong trades over the Caribbean waters. These winds are funneling into the Gulf of Papagayo. With the added component of nocturnal drainage flow, winds are reaching near 25 kt during the late night and early evening hours over the Gulf of Papagayo. A progressive pattern will see the area of high pressure shifting further from the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, followed by another area of high pressure building back across this area. This will maintain the tight pressure gradient and the pulsing winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. This synoptic patter will support fresh winds pulsing over the Gulf of Panama during the late night and early morning hours through the week. Elsewhere...light to gentle breezes and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered north of the area near 31N132W extends a ridge southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the equatorial trough is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the tradewind belt north of the equatorial trough to near 20N. Northwesterly swell is propagating into the northern waters, with seas reaching 9 ft north of a line from 27N140W to 27N130W to 30N123W. The area of high pressure will continue north of the area through the forecast period. This will maintain the area of moderate to fresh trades over the area. The northwest swell will continue to propagate southward, combining with wind waves generated by the trades. This will bring combined seas of 8 ft of greater over much of the area from 08N to 21N west of 120W by midweek. $$ AL