000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 UTC Mon Mar 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ axis extends from 02N100W to 01N110W to 02N119W to 03N125W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure extending from the southeast U.S. over the Gulf of Mexico to eastern Mexico is slowly shifting eastward. As a result, north winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to strong speeds early this morning. Seas associated with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Due to the length of this gale force event, the swell that were generated are propagating southwestward and mixing with southwest swell from the Southern Hemisphere in the area from 05N to 12N between 91W and 106W. Seas produced by the mixing swell are around 8 ft. This area of swell will decay by this evening. A weakening cold front passes through the northern portion of the discussion area from 30N118W to 27N133W to 27N133W. The cold front will dissipate as it passes across the northeast waters and Baja California Norte today. High pressure building in behind the front will generate moderate to fresh north to northwest winds over the marine zones on both sides of the Baja Peninsula through Tuesday night. Winds north of 28.5N and east of 117W will be fresh to strong tonight as the difference in pressure between the high and low pressure over Mexico becomes greatest. Conditions will be similar over the Gulf of California between 25N and 30N on Tuesday. The leading edge of long period northwest swell associated with strong winds is following the front. The swell will cause seas in the offshore waters of Baja California north of 23N to build above 8 ft this afternoon through Tuesday night. Another Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to begin Wednesday as strong high pressure expands to the southwest over the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds could pule to gale force Wednesday night and Thursday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north and east of the region will continue to funnel fresh to strong northeast to east winds into the Gulf of Papagayo and nearby waters through the forecast period. The areal coverage of the winds has decreased and will generally remain between 09.5N and 12N through Friday morning. Seas will peak around 9 ft each night when the winds are strongest. Long period swell generated by these winds will propagate westward and merge with large swell emanating from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This afternoon through Wednesday, the lack of fresh swell from Tehuantepec and reduced swell resulting from smaller coverage of strong winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will restrict the extent of 8 ft seas generated by the Papagayo gap winds. By Wednesday night, the areal coverage of strong winds and 8 ft or greater seas will once again increase as another strong high builds north of the area. Over the Gulf of Panama...north to northeast fresh to strong winds have diminished to moderate speeds. Seas have subsided to less than 8 ft. Elsewhere...light to gentle breezes and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure building in behind a weakening cold front passing through the northern waters is causing the pressure gradient between 05N and 20N to increase. The increasing pressure gradient is causing an area of fresh northeast trades to develop. An area of 8 ft seas will develop from 06N to 16N west of 113W by Tuesday morning as trade-wind swell combine with SW swell and NW swell. This area will expand as it shifts westward and eventually combine with an area of 8 ft seas associated with northwest swell generated by the latest cold front to enter the discussion area. The aforementioned cold front will be attended by a new set of northwest swell. Associated seas of 8-10 ft are forecast to propagate southeastward through the northern waters during the next couple of days. By tonight, the swell will bring seas of 8-10 ft to the waters north of a line from 28.5N115W to 22N133W to 23N140W. On Tuesday morning, the swell will reach as far south as 15N and begin to merge with the other area of seas associated with trade winds. By Thursday, an area of 8-10 ft seas will result from about 05N to 20N west of 115W as fresh northeast trades prevail over the region. $$ cam