000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051515 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1515 UTC Sun Mar 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... There are currently no ITCZ or monsoon trough analyzed in this area of discussion. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A tight pressure gradient associated with strong high pressure that extends from the southeast U.S. to the Gulf of Mexico and to eastern Mexico is currently generating strong to near gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and surrounding waters from about 12N to the Mexico coast between 94W and 97W with seas of 8 to 12 ft. A weak pressure pattern over the northern and central waters supports light to gentle northwest winds offshore west of Baja California and gentle to moderate winds for the Mexican waters north of 16N. Seas of 4-6 ft are present in both of these areas. A cold front will enter the northwest portion of the discussion area by tonight, then weaken as it passes across the northeast waters into Monday morning. The front will be accompanied by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. The leading edge of long period northwest swell associated with strong winds currently behind the front will follow the front and enter the far northern portions of the area north of 29N and west by this evening. This set of northwest swell is forecast to move into the offshore waters of Baja California Norte Monday night and Tuesday. By Tuesday, strong northwest winds will develop over the Gulf of California, with seas building to 8 ft. Another Tehuantepec wind event is expected to begin Wednesday as strong high pressure expands southwest over the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front crossing the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north and east of the region will continue to funnel fresh to strong northeast to east winds into the Gulf of Papagayo and surrounding waters through the forecast period. The largest areal coverage of the strong winds are occurring this morning, with lesser coverage of strong pulsing winds expected the next few nights as the high northeast of the region weakens. Seas of 8 to 10 ft within this area will continue through today as swell propagates westward and merges with large swell propagating from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. From tonight through Wednesday, the lack of swell from Tehuantepec and smaller coverage of strong winds from Papagayo will result in mainly local seas of 8 to 9 ft from the Papagayo gap winds. By Wednesday night, the areal coverage of strong winds and 8 ft or greater seas will once again increase as another strong high builds north of the area. Over the Gulf of Panama...north to northeast fresh to strong winds through the gulf tonight will subside through today. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft this evening. Elsewhere...light to gentle breezes and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure pattern is in place as a cold front is just arriving along our northern border of 30N between 130W and 137W. This is resulting in gentle to moderate winds north of 20N over the open east Pacific waters. There remains a sufficient pressure gradient to support an area of fresh northeast trades north of 08N and south of 15N, west of 135W. These trades support 8 ft seas over this area. This area of fresh trades and 8 ft seas will continue the next few days while slowly expanding eastward as high pressure builds north of the area. Meanwhile, the cold front entering the northern portion of this discussion area will be accompanied by a new batch of 8 to 10 ft swell propagating southeast across the northern waters the next couple of days. By Monday morning the swell will reach waters north of a line from 30N120W to 25N140W. By Tuesday morning the swell will reach as far south as 15N and will begin to merge with the other trade wind induced 8 ft seas. By the middle of the week the 8 to 10 ft seas will be confined from about 04N to 22N, west of 115W, while fresh to strong northeast trades prevail over the region. $$ FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.