000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041000
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
731 UTC Sat Mar 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Strong and expansive high pressure covers the United States east
of the Mississippi and the Gulf of Mexico. The high is 
maintaining gale force north to northeast 30-40 kt winds. The 
high is shifting eastward closer to the east coast of the United 
States. This will allow the gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec to decrease below gale force on Sunday morning. As 
the high continue migrating eastward, SE return flow will set up 
over the western Gulf and bring this latest gap wind event to and
end. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ extends from 04N87W to 02N102W to 03N114W. The ITCZ 
resumes from 04N119W to 02N123W to 02N127W. No significant 
convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure ridging southward along the east coast of 
Mexico Maintaining a Tehuantepec gale. Please refer to the 
special features section above for more details. High pressure 
over the Great Basin of the U.S. and troughing extending from 
northwest to southeast just east of the Gulf of California are 
both weakening. This has allowed the strong northwest winds over 
the far northern waters of the Gulf of California to subside. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail 
across the offshore waters of Mexico through Sunday. A cold front
will cross the northeast and north-central waters on Monday. 
High pressure building in behind the front will bring fresh to 
locally strong north to northwest winds along with seas as high 
as 9 ft to the waters along the Baja coast Monday night as large 
set of north swell propagates through this area. The pressure 
gradient between the high and thermal trough that forms east of 
the Gulf of California will also support strong northwest winds 
over much of the Gulf of California from late Monday night 
through Wednesday. Seas could building to 8 ft in the central and
southern portions of the gulf.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north and east of the region will continue to 
funnel fresh to strong northeast winds through the Gulf of 
Papagayo. The area involved will expand from 08N to 13N to 
include the Gulf of Fonseca, and extend as far west as 93W during
the next several days. The strongest winds will occur from the 
late night through the morning hours. Seas will build to 8 to 10 
ft within this area as swell propagate westward and merge with 
large swell propagating from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Over the Gulf of Panama...north to northeast winds will increase
to fresh to strong speeds each night before diminishing during 
the late afternoon hours through Monday. A period of fresh to 
strong winds and seas to 8 ft will occur today through Sunday 
night.

Elsewhere...light to gentle breezes and seas of 4 to 6 ft will 
prevail through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between 1025 mb high pressure centered 
just the north of the discussion area near 32N139W and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ has decreased as a cold 
front approaching from the north weakens the high. This has 
allowed the fresh to strong northeast to east winds from about 
13N to 17N and west of 134W to subside. The associated area of 8 
to 9 ft seas will subside below 8 ft by Sunday morning. However, 
a new batch of north swell following in the wake of the cold 
front will cause seas to build to between 8 and 10 ft over the 
far northern waters north of 29N west of 130W by Sunday evening. 
Wave model guidance shows the swell propagating to the southeast,
and ultimately spreading across the lions share of the waters 
north of 05N and west of 115W waters by Wednesday. The area of 
seas will be augmented by swell propagating westward from the 
Gulf of Papagayo and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere.

$$
cam