000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031004
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
720 UTC Fri Mar 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Satellite-derived wind data from 0320Z show a gale force wind 
event is now underway over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A cold front 
has pushed southward along the west coast of the Gulf of Mexico 
along the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec. Strong high pressure is building in behind the 
front. A very tight pressure gradient has become established 
across southeastern Mexico this morning. Gale force winds are 
expected to diminish slightly Saturday evening into Sunday across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec before tapering below gale force Sunday 
afternoon. Seas will peak around 16 ft this afternoon and again 
on Saturday afternoon. Beyond 48 hours, northerly winds to near 
gale force will be possible over the gulf north of 14N Sunday 
night through Monday night. By Tuesday morning winds and seas 
will subside below advisory levels as high pressure over the Gulf
of Mexico shifts eastward and return flow sets up over the Bay 
of Campeche. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ axis extends from 03N100W to 03N119W to 05N130W. No 
significant convection is noted. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning mentioned
above, the combination of strong high pressure over the inter-
mountain region of the U.S. and troughing extending from northwest
to southeast just east of the Gulf of California is generating 
strong northwest winds over the Gulf of California. Winds and 
seas will quickly diminish and subside this evening as the 
high to the northeast weakens and shifts eastward. Elsewhere 
light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail across the 
offshore waters of Mexico through Sunday. A cold front crossing 
the northeast and north-central waters will bring fresh to 
locally strong north to northwest winds along with seas as high
as 9 ft to the waters along the Baja coast Monday through Tuesday
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong northeast winds have begun to pulse through the 
Gulf of Papagayo. These winds will aggressively expand northward
in areal coverage to the waters off Puerto Sandino Nicaragua and
also off the Gulf of Fonseca this morning. Winds will increase 
to 20-30 kt, with seas building to 10 ft. The winds will diminish
to fresh to locally strong speeds during the afternoon hours on 
Friday. The seas associated with these winds are expected to 
gradually subside later on Saturday through Sunday. The bulk of 
the short period northeast and east swell propagating out of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec and other gap wind areas will mix with 
southwest swell as it merges into a large area of 8-10 ft seas 
generally from 05N to 12N between 85W and 105W by Saturday
afternoon. By Monday, the seas are expected to subside and leave
a residual area of seas in both the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of
tehuantepec.

Gulf of Panama...Winds will freshen each night before diminishing
during the late afternoon hours through Monday. a brief period of
fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft will occur Saturday night
through Sunday night.

Elsewhere...light to gentle breezes will persist through early 
next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 
The pressure gradient between 1032 mb high pressure centered to 
the north of the discussion area near 35N134W and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is still maintaining fresh to strong
northeast to east winds from 16N to 18N between 130W and 134W 
with seas of 8-9 ft. Seas elsewhere from 06N to 25N west of 124W 
are 8-9 ft in northeast wind waves mixing with long-period 
northwest swell. The winds and seas will diminish and subside 
through Saturday night as high pressure weakens in response to an
approaching cold front. Beyond 48 hours, north swell following in
the wake of the cold front will cause seas to build to between 8
and 10 ft over the far northern waters north of 28N west of 126W
by late Sunday night. Wave model guidance shows this swell 
propagating ESE and reaching the northeast portion of the area 
by Monday. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will be confined to north of 30N by
that time.

$$
cam