000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030338 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Mar 02 2017 corrected header time Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extending northeast to southwest across the Gulf of Mexico will push southeastward over the remainder of the gulf through early on Friday. Strong high pressure building in behind the front will extend a ridge across eastern Mexico along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. A tight pressure gradient will become established across southeastern Mexico by tonight leading to near gale to gale force northerly winds that will begin to funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning early tonight and into Friday morning. Gale force winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sunday before diminishing below gale force. Seas are expected to build to around 15 ft early Friday and again early on Saturday. Beyond 48 hours, northerly winds to gale force are possible over a small portion of the gulf late Saturday night into Sunday. The high pressure north of the discussion area is forecast to begin weakening on Sunday, with strong to near gale conditions Sunday night, but only fresh to strong gap winds by late Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ axis extends from 04N97W to 03N110W to 03N128W to 03N130W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning mentioned above, the combination of strong high pressure over the inter- mountain region of the U.S. and troughing extending northwest to southeast just inland western Mexico is inducing strong northwest winds over the Gulf of California north of 24N as observed in the 1750Z Ascat pass from this afternoon. The long fetch and persistence of these strong winds has build seas to 8 ft in the portion of the gulf from 25N to 27N. Latest model guidance indicates that winds and seas will diminish and subside respectively into Friday evening as the aforementioned high pressure shifts eastward while weakening. Elsewhere light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail across the offshore waters of Mexico through Sunday. Beyond 48 hours, the passage of a cold front across the northeast and north-central waters will bring fresh to locally strong north to northwest winds along with seas possibly up to 9 ft to the waters off Baja California Norte Monday and Monday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast winds pulsing through the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh intensity late this afternoon. Strong northeast winds will again behind to pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo late tonight, and expand northward in coverage to the waters off Puerto Sandino Nicaragua and off the Gulf of Fonseca. These winds are forecast to reach the range of 20-30 kt towards daybreak on Friday, with seas building to 10 ft. The winds will then diminish to the fresh to locally strong range during the afternoon hours. The seas associated with these winds are expected to reach up to 11 ft on Saturday morning before they begin to gradually subside later on Saturday and into Sunday. The bulk of the short period northeast and east swell that will have emanated out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and other gap wind areas is forecast to by Wave model guidance to mix with a southwest swell component as it merges into a large area of 8- 9 ft seas within the boundaries marked from 07N to 12N between 90W and 94W, from 07N to 14N between 94W and 98W, and from 05N to 13N between 98W and 105W by Saturday. By Monday, the seas are expected to subside even further to 8 ft but with the residual northeast swell decreasing just west of the Gulf of Papagayo as it continues to mix with a southwest swell component. Gulf of Panama...Winds will freshen each night before diminishing during the late afternoon hours through Monday. Elsewhere...light to gentle breezes will persist through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The tight pressure gradient occurring to the south if strong high pressure of 1033 mb to the north of the discussion area near 36N133W is maintaining fresh northeast to east winds across much of the area from 05N to 26N west of 134W and from 09N to 23N between 125W and 134W, with areas of fresh to strong winds from 19N to 25N west of 137W and also from 20N to 23N between 131W and 137W with seas of 8-10 ft. Seas elsewhere within the aforementioned area are 8-9 ft in northeast wind waves mixing with long-period northwest swell. The winds and seas diminish and subside respectively through Saturday night as the high pressure weakens. Beyond 48 hours, northerly swell in excess of 8 ft will follow a cold front expected to move S of 30N Sunday night covering much of the area north of 25N by late Monday. $$ Aguirre