000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012155
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf of Mexico this evening, and sweep across the
remainder of the gulf through Thursday. Strong high pressure will
build in behind the front, with northerly winds forecast to
begin to funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the morning 
hours Thursday. The high pressure will surge southward along the
Sierra Madre Oriental mountains over eastern Mexico during 
Thursday. This will help tighten the pressure gradient across 
the area and increase winds to gale force over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Thursday night. Gale force winds are expected to 
continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sunday before
diminishing below gale force. Seas are expected to build to 
around 13 ft Thursday night, and reach near 16 ft on Friday.

Please see the latest NWS high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPNO3 KNHC for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ north of the equator.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale
force gap wind event.

Gentle to moderate northwest winds prevail over the waters off 
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula as well as the 
Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft range off the west coast of the Baja 
California peninsula, 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California, and 4-5
ft elsewhere. High pressure building over the Great Basin region
of the United States will help increase winds over the Gulf of 
California today. Winds will reach 20 to 25 kt down the length of
the Gulf of California through Thursday. The long fetch of 
northwest winds will allow seas to build to 8 ft from 24N to 26N 
by early Thursday. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will
prevail elsewhere over the offshore waters of Mexico through
Saturday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Winds will pulse over the area through the
rest of the week and the weekend. Winds will peak near 25 kt 
during the late night and early morning hours, and will diminish 
to 20 kt or less during the early evening hours. Seas with these
winds will build to around 9 ft early each morning before 
subsiding below 8 ft early each evening through Saturday.

Gulf of Panama...Winds will freshen each night before diminishing
during the late afternoon hours through Saturday.

Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist through Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure building north of the area extends a ridge
southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The building high
pressure has freshened trades over the western waters. High 
pressure will continue to build to the north of the region 
today. This will further tighten the pressure gradient between 
the area of high pressure and lower pressure associated to the 
equatorial trough, with northeast to east trades mainly in the 
fresh range north of about 10N and west of 120W, except for a 
small swath of strong northeast to east winds from 21N to 22.5N 
between 128W and 136W. Seas within this area are generally 8-9 ft
due to a mixture of northeast wind waves with northwest swell. 
The northwest swell begin to mix with a north to northeast swell 
tonight through Saturday in the western portion of the area. The 
area of high pressure will weaken later in the week, loosening 
the pressure gradient and diminishing winds late Thursday and 
Friday. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range will linger in the area of 
fresh trade winds between 05N and 20N, west of 125W into Saturday
before subsiding through late Saturday.

$$
Aguirre