000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010715
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 UTC Wed Mar 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Very strong high pressure will 
build southward in the wake of a strong cold front that will 
move across the Gulf of Mexico and reach the southwest Bay of 
Campeche by Thursday. A very tight pressure gradient will set up 
between the front and the high leading to minimal gale force 
north winds to funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec beginning Thursday night and through Saturday 
morning. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft Thursday 
night, and possibly to 16 ft on Friday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ/Monsoon Trough is not presently identifiable. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front over reaching from north central Mexico
across the central Gulf of California, Baja peninsula and
adjacent Pacific offshore waters will dissipate through this
morning. Gentle to moderate northwest winds in the wake of the 
dying cold front will increase later today as high pressure 
builds north of the region. The northwest winds will reach 20 to 
25 kt down the length of the Gulf of California through Thursday.
The long fetch of northwest winds will allow seas to build to 8 
ft by early Thursday over the southern Gulf of California.
Northwest swell to 8 ft propagating into the offshore waters 
west Guadalupe Island will diminish through late today. Other 
the developing gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle 
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will persist elsewhere over the offshore
waters of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Winds will pulse over the area the next
couple of days. Winds will peak near 25 kt during the late night
and early morning hours, and will diminish to 20 kt or less 
during the early evening hours. These winds are expected to 
expand northward to near 13N near Puerto Corinto, southward to 
10N and westward to near 91W. Seas with these winds will build to
around 9 ft per.

Gulf of Panama...Winds will freshen each night before diminishing
during the late afternoon hours.

Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist through Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The remnant of a cold front has become a trough reaching from
central Baja California Sur to 18N130W. Recent satellite data
indicated moderate to fresh northeast winds north of the 
boundary with 7 to 9 ft seas, mainly due to northwest swell. The
trough will dissipate through today and high pressure will build
to the north of the region, allowing the northeast to east flow
across the region west of 120W to increase and allow seas to
build to 8 to 9 ft in most areas in a mix of northeast wind waves
and northwest swell. The high pressure will weaken later in the
week, allowing winds diminish late Thursday and Friday with 8 to
9 ft seas lingering in the area of fresh trade winds between 05N
and 20N, west of 125W into Saturday, then subsiding through late
Saturday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN