000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 UTC Tue Feb 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... No well defined Monsoon Trough/ITCZ at present. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong southwest winds are ongoing over the northern Gulf of California this morning ahead of a cold front moving eastward across Baja California Norte early today, and through the northern Gulf of California into this afternoon. These winds will diminish later this morning as the front approaches. The front will stall and become diffuse tonight. Northwest swell to 8 ft will move into the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 200 nm through Wednesday night then subside. Strong high pressure building north of the area over the Great Basin will support strong northwest winds along the length of the Gulf of California from Wednesday night into early Friday morning. with seas reaching 8 ft in the southern Gulf of California Thursday. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient weakens across the region, allowing winds and seas diminish Friday and Saturday. Farther south, varying winds at 10 kt or less generally prevail all the way to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little change is expected through today. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep through the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will be possible Thursday night through Saturday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Offshore gap winds are increasing this morning to 20-25 kt, but will diminish to 20 kt or less this afternoon. Strong overnight pulses will continue through the remainder of the week. The strong areas of gap winds will allow seas of 8 ft downstream within 200 nm of the coast each night. Fresh gap winds will also develop each night through the Gulfs of Panama and Fonseca. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from near Tijuana Mexico to 24N128W. A broad area of mainly northwest swell to 9 ft is observed in altimeter data west of the front north of 20N. Moderate northeast winds are starting to increase slightly to 20 kt behind the front as high pressure builds north of the region. Farther south, a small area of seas to 8 ft is observed by altimeter satellites near 10N135W. The northeast winds will increase through mid week, reaching 25 kt from 20N to 25N. The combination of the slightly increased northeast winds and persistent long period northwest swell will support seas of 8 to 10 ft over much of the region north of 05N and west of 120W Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will diminish slightly across the region by Friday, allowing seas to subside from east to west below 8 ft through Saturday. $$ CHRISTENSEN