000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280337
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Feb 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

No well defined Monsoon Trough/ITCZ at present. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure has collapsed across the region this 
afternoon, leaving a very weak ridge from about 23N120W to the 
Pacific coast of central Baja California. This pressure pattern 
is supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the entire area. 
Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the offshore waters, except to 6 ft 
across the far northern waters. A cold front is approaching the 
area from the west this afternoon, and extends from 30N120W TO 
LOW PRES 1014 MB NEAR 23.5N128W TO 18N140W. Strong southwest to 
west winds have begun to develop over the far northern Gulf of 
California ahead of this front, with these winds expected to 
persist into Tuesday. The front will move across Baja California 
Norte and the northern Gulf of California through late Tuesday, 
then become diffuse. Northwest swell will follow the front, with 
seas to 8 ft reaching the waters beyond 200 nm off Baja 
California Norte Wednesday, then subsiding. Looking ahead, high 
pressure building north of the area over the Great Basin will 
support strong northwest winds down the length of the Gulf of 
California Wednesday night into Friday.

Farther south, varying winds at 10 kt or less generally prevail 
all the way to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little change is 
expected through Tuesday. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep 
through the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel 
strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds 
will be possible Thursday night through Saturday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Offshore gap winds diminished to 15-20 kt this afternoon across 
the Gulf of Papagayo region, but will increase again tonight to 
20-25 kt, and then again each night through the remainder of the 
week. The strong areas of gap winds will allow seas of 8 ft 
downstream within 200 nm of the coast each night. Fresh gap 
winds will also develop each night through the Gulfs of Panama 
and Fonseca. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front extends from 30N120W TO LOW PRES 1014 MB NEAR 
23.5N128W TO 18N140W. Winds and seas are moderate near the 
front, but SW winds have increased ahead of the front just north 
of the area across far north portions of Baja California Norte. 
Long period northwest swell behind the front is generally 
producing seas of 8 to 9 ft. The front will continue to move 
east and reach the coast of Baja California Norte early Tuesday. 
Farther south, a surface trough extends from 10N115W TO 
02.5N116W and will continue to move west through the next couple 
of days accompanied by a few clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms, eventually reaching 120W to 125W by mid week 
before dampening out. Strong high pressure building north of the 
area behind the cold front will allow northeast winds to 
increase slightly across the region north of 05N and west of 
120W by late Tuesday. Along with the ongoing components of 
northwest swell propagating into the region, seas will build to 
8 to 10 ft over much of the area by mid week. 

$$
Stripling