000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... No well defined Monsoon Trough/ITCZ at present. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure has settled over the region, supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the entire area. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere offshore, except to 6 ft across the far northern waters. 1017 mb high pressure centered near 21N121W will dissipate early tonight ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the west. Strong southwest to west winds are expected over the far northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front tonight into Tuesday. The front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California through late Tuesday, then become diffuse. Northwest swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching the waters beyond 200 nm off Baja California Norte Wednesday, then subsiding. Looking ahead, high pressure building north of the area over the Great Basin will support strong northwest winds down the length of the Gulf of California Wednesday night into Friday. Farther south, varying winds at 10 kt or less generally prevail all the way to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little change is expected through Tuesday. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep through the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will be possible Thursday night through Saturday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong gap winds developed across the Gulf of Papagayo region last night through late this morning, but have diminished modestly this afternoon. The gap winds will increase again tonight to 20-25 kt, and then again each night through the remainder of the week. The combined strong areas of gap winds will allow seas of 8 ft downstream within 200 nm of the coast each night. Fresh gap winds will also develop each night through the Gulfs of Panama and Fonseca. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N123W TO 20N135W. Winds and seas are moderate near the front, but long period northwest swell of 8 to 10 ft was observed in earlier altimeter data well west of the front, north of 27.55N and west of 134W. The front will continue to move east reaching the coast of Baja California Norte Tuesday. Farther south, a surface trough extends from 09N114W TO 03N116.5W TO 02.5N124W will continue to move west through the next couple of days accompanied by a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms, eventually reaching 120W to 125W by mid week before dampening out. High pressure building north of the area behind the cold front will allow northeast winds to increase slightly across the region north of 05N and west of 120W by late Tuesday. Along with the ongoing components of northwest swell propagating into the region, seas will build to 8 to 10 ft over much of the area by mid week. $$ Stripling