000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270815
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 UTC Mon Feb 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ extends from 03N115W TO 02N130W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between
115W and 125W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is settling over the region, supporting gentle
to moderate breezes. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of
California and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere offshore. The high pressure
will dissipate through late today ahead of a cold front
approaching the area from the west. Strong southwest to west
winds are possible over the far northern Gulf of California ahead
of the cold front tonight. The front will move across Baja
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California through 
late Tuesday, then become diffuse. Northwest swell will follow 
the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching the waters beyond 200 nm 
off Baja California Norte Wednesday, then subsiding. Looking 
ahead, high pressure building north of the area over the Great 
Basin will support strong northwest winds down the length of the 
Gulf of California Wednesday night into Friday.

Farther south, varying winds at 10 kt or less generally prevail 
all the way to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little change is 
expected through Tuesday. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep 
through the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel 
strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds 
will be possible Thursday night through Saturday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong gap winds are developing through the Gulf of Papagayo this
morning, the result of slightly higher pressure building north of
the area. The gap winds will diminish by late morning, but are
expected to pulse again tonight and each night across the Gulf 
of Papagayo through the remainder of the week, along with gap
winds off Puerto Corinto Nicaragua. The combined strong areas of
gap winds will allow seas of 8 to 9 ft downstream within 200 nm 
of the coast each night. Fresh gap winds will also develop each
night through the Gulfs of Panama and Fonseca. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle breezes will persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front reaches from 30N125W TO 26N132W. Winds and seas are
moderate near the front, but long period northwest swell of 8 to
10 ft was observed in earlier altimeter data well west of the
front, north of 25N and west of 135W. The front will continue to
move east reaching the coast of Baja California Norte Tuesday.
Farther south, a surface trough reaching from 11N111W to 04N115W
will continue to move west through the next couple of days
accompanied by a few showers and thunderstorms, eventually
reaching 120W to 125W by mid week before dampening out. High 
pressure building north of the area behind the cold front will 
allow northeast winds to increase slightly across the region 
north of 05N and west of 120W by late Tuesday. Along with the 
ongoing components of northwest swell propagating into the 
region, seas will build to 8 to 10 ft over much of the area by 
mid week. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN