000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270344 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Feb 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 04N113W TO 02N129W TO 00.5N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 124W and 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW to N winds have diminished to 10-15 kt across the offshore waters of the Baja California this evening and weak high pressure of 1020 mb near 25Nn125W is drifting slowly eastward toward the coast. Seas were generally running 4-6 ft in NWly swell. Elsewhere southeast to Cabo Corrientes winds were light and variable with seas 4-5 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, noon time ASCAT data showed light NW to N winds prevailing S of 25N, light and variable central portions, and freshening S to SW winds across the Tiburon Basin. Evening sea breezes are thought to be occurring at this time leaving light to gentle and varying winds across the gulf waters. The high center will shift eastward and weaken during the next 24 hours before collapsing Tuesday evening near the Baja coast. This will allow winds to diminish further to light to gentle breezes through late Monday, except for far north portions of the Gulf of California. The approaching weak cold front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Monday night and Tuesday, with fresh to strong southerly winds expected across far north portions Monday, and a brief and fairly localized pulse of 20 to 25 kt westerly gap winds there before dawn on Tuesday. Looking farther ahead, NW winds will strengthen around mid week as strong high pressure north of the area builds southeast into the region. Seas in offshore zone PMZ011 could reach 8 ft late Tuesday or early on Wednesday. Farther south, varying winds at 10 kt or less generally prevail all the way to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little change is expected through Tuesday. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep through the SW Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will be possible Thursday night through Saturday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A very weak pressure pattern persists from the offshore waters of the eastern Tropical Pacific northeastward into Central America, resulting in light to gentle breezes across the region. A return to moderate to fresh trade winds across the SW Caribbean late tonight and Monday will support fresh to strong gap winds developing over the Gulf of Papagayo starting late tonight. Strong nocturnal pulses of these winds are then expected through the upcoming week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh northerly gap winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Panama. The areas of combined seas 8 ft or greater generated by the gap winds over and downstream of the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo may become large enough to merge on Friday and Saturday. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaches from 30N126W TO 25N134W TO 22N140W. S to SW winds ahead of the front have diminished to 15-20 kt today as the mid-level trough north of the front has lifted out to the NE. Long period NW swell follows the front and is producing seas to around 8 ft north of 23N and west of 137W. The front will continue to move eastward and extend from Baja California Norte at 30N116W to 25N123W by Tuesday morning. NW swell in the far NW portion of the discussion area will decay below 8 ft by around sunrise, but then build to 8-10 ft across the far NW waters by Monday afternoon as fresh to strong NE winds build across that area. Seas around 8 ft are present farther south from 08N to 13N between 127W and 138W, a result of a mix of trade-wind swell generated by moderate trade winds and longer period NW swell. This area of near 8 ft seas will persist across this trade wind belt through Tuesday. $$ Stripling