000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262214 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 04.5N113W TO 02N129W TO 01N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 122W and 139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW winds continue around 15 kt across the offshore waters of the Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro early this afternoon and 5 to 10 kt south of there, as a 1021 mb high has settle near 26n124w. Seas were generally running 4-6 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere southeast to Cabo Corrientes winds were light and variable. Inside the Gulf of California, recent ASCAT data showed light NW to N winds prevailing S of 25N, light and variable central portions, and freshening S to SW winds across the Tiburon Basin. The high center will shift eastward and weaken during the next couple of days, ahead of an approaching cold front. This will allow winds to diminish further to light to gentle speeds through late Monday, except for far north portions of the Gulf of California. The approaching weak cold front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Monday night and Tuesday, with fresh to strong southerly winds expected across far north portions Monday, and a brief and fairly localized pulse of 20 to 25 kt westerly gap winds there before dawn on Tuesday. Looking farther ahead, NW winds will strengthen around mid week as strong high pressure builds north of the area. Seas in offshore zone PMZ011 could reach 8 ft on Wednesday. Farther south, fresh winds northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning have diminished as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico has shifted eastward and return flow has set up over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep through the SW Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will be possible Thursday night through Saturday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A very weak pressure pattern prevails from the offshore waters of the eastern Tropical Pacific northeastward over the western Caribbean. Light to gentle breezes are the result across the region. A return to moderate to fresh trade winds across the SW Caribbean late tonight and Monday will support fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo starting late tonight. Strong nocturnal pulses of the winds are then expected through the upcoming week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh northerly gap winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Panama. The areas of combined seas 8 ft or greater generated by the gap winds over the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo may become large enough to merge on Friday and Saturday. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaches from 30N127W TO 24.5N135W TO 23N140W. S to SW winds ahead of the front have diminished to 15-20 kt today as the mid-level trough north of the front has lifted out to the NE. Long period NW swell follow the front and are producing seas to between 8 and 9 ft north of 22N and west of 136W. The front will continue to move eastward and extend from Baja California Norte at 30N116W to 25N123W by Tuesday morning. NW swell in the far NW portion of the discussion area will decay below 8 ft by tonight, but then build to 8-10 ft across the far NW water Monday afternoon as fresh to strong NE winds build across that area. Seas around 8 ft are present farther south from 05N to 17N between 124W and 140W, a result of a mix of trade-wind swell generated by moderate trade winds and longer period NW swell. This area of near 8 ft seas will persist across this trade wind belt through Tuesday. $$ Stripling