000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1350 UTC Sun Feb 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 04N115W to 03N118W to 03N129W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 122W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW winds over the Gulf of California near Los Cabos have decreased to moderate speeds and seas have subsided as the pressure gradient between low pressure over central Mexico and high pressure centered west of Baja California Norte continues to weaken. The high will shift eastward during the next couple of days, allowing winds to diminish further to light to gentle speeds. A weakening cold front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Monday night and Tuesday. This may bring a brief and fairly localized pulse of 20 to 25 kt westerly gap winds to the northern Gulf of California before dawn on Tuesday. Looking farther ahead, NW winds will strengthen around mid week as strong high pressure builds north of the area. Seas in offshore zone PMZ011 could reach 8 ft on Wednesday. Farther south, fresh winds are pulsing into the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 15N this morning. Winds will quickly diminish as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward and return flow sets up over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep through the SW Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will be possible Thursday night through Saturday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A very weak pressure pattern prevails from the offshore waters of the eastern Tropical Pacific northeastward over the western Caribbean. Light to gentle breezes are the result across the region. Trade winds strengthening across the SW Caribbean in response to building high pressure to the north will support fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo starting late Sunday night. Nocturnal pulsing of the winds is then expected through the upcoming week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Panama. The areas of combined seas 8 ft or greater generated by the gap winds over the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and papagayo may become large enough to merge on Friday and Saturday. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaches from 30N130W to 25N136W. Winds in the vicinity of the front have since diminished to 20 kt or less as the mid-level trough north of the front lifts out to the NE. Long period NW swell are following the front and causing seas north of 25N and west of 137W to build to between 8 and 9 ft. The front will continue to move eastward and extend from Baja California Norte at 30N116W to 25N123W by Tuesday morning. NW swell in the far NW portion of the discussion area will decay below 8 ft by tonight. Seas around 8 ft are present farther south from 10N to 17N between 129W and 139W. The seas are the result of a mix of trade-wind swell generated by moderate trade winds and longer period NW swell. This area of seas will decay by early Monday. A persistent surface trough is analyzed from 04N114W to 10N110W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 109W and 113W. The trough will continue west and reach near 120W by late Monday before it damps out. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build north of the area through mid week, allowing 15 to 20 kt NE winds to develop across the entire region west of 120W. Seas will build to between 8 and 9 ft mainly in a mix of NE wind waves and NW swell. $$ cam